Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Penn State Nittany Lions v USC Trojans

2026-10-10 16:00 UTC — NCAAF

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

52%

48%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Penn State Nittany Lions (Local)

Prediction 52.37%1.91fair odd

EV -2.07%

Edge -1.11%

Kelly -2.38%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

50.27%52.34%52.37%52.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.751.811.811.8757.14%55.25%55.10%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

USC Trojans (Visit)

Prediction 47.63%2.10fair odd

EV -4.74%

Edge -2.37%

Kelly -4.74%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

47.55%47.66%47.63%49.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.891.971.982.0052.91%50.89%50.63%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Penn State Nittany Lions (Local): 52.37%; USC Trojans (Visit): 47.63%. For Penn State Nittany Lions (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.91. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.87, with an expected value of -2.07%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
NordicBet🎯	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.27%EV -2.07%E -1.11%K -2.38%G +0.000%	1.89I 52.91%NM 49.73%EV -9.98%E -5.28%K -11.21%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-07-28 12:57
DraftKings🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.17%E -2.28%K -5.02%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.74%E -2.37%K -4.74%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-08-11 16:14
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.17%E -2.28%K -5.02%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.74%E -2.37%K -4.74%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-08-05 15:14
Coolbet🎯	1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.69%E -2.58%K -5.72%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.74%E -2.37%K -4.74%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-08-11 16:14
Betr (AU)🎯	1.81I 55.25%NM 52.12%EV -5.21%E -2.88%K -6.44%G +0.000%	1.97I 50.76%NM 47.88%EV -6.17%E -3.13%K -6.36%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-08-11 16:14
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -5.74%E -3.19%K -7.17%G +0.000%	1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -5.69%E -2.87%K -5.81%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-07-28 21:33
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 52.42%EV -7.31%E -4.13%K -9.49%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 47.58%EV -7.12%E -3.65%K -7.49%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-08-11 16:14
LeoVegas🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 52.45%EV -8.36%E -4.77%K -11.14%G +0.000%	1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -8.07%E -4.18%K -8.68%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-07-28 21:34

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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