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Notre Dame Fighting Irish v Wisconsin Badgers
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Local)
Prediction 91.14%1.10fair odd
EV -2.48%
Edge -2.31%
Kelly -35.36%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.07
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
88.40%90.97%91.29%92.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.051.051.0799.01%95.62%95.24%93.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Wisconsin Badgers (Visit)
Prediction 8.86%11.29fair odd
EV +12.91%
Edge +1.01%
Kelly +1.10%
Growth +0.142%
assuming max odds 12.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.34%9.03%8.71%11.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.0010.6110.5012.7512.50%9.42%9.52%7.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Local): 91.14%; Wisconsin Badgers (Visit): 8.86%. For Wisconsin Badgers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.29. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.91%.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.66%EV -7.94%E -7.87%K -794.39%G +0.000% | 12.75I 7.84%NM 7.34%EV +12.91%E +1.01%K +1.10%G +0.142% | 6.9% | 2026-09-06 23:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.95%EV -4.30%E -4.09%K -85.96%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.05%EV +6.26%E +0.522%K +0.569%G +0.036% | 3.6% | 2026-09-06 23:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -5.21%E -5.01%K -130.24%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +6.26%E +0.522%K +0.569%G +0.036% | 4.5% | 2026-09-06 23:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -5.21%E -5.01%K -130.24%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +6.26%E +0.522%K +0.569%G +0.036% | 4.5% | 2026-09-06 23:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -5.21%E -5.01%K -130.24%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +6.26%E +0.522%K +0.569%G +0.036% | 4.5% | 2026-09-06 23:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -5.21%E -5.01%K -130.24%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +6.26%E +0.522%K +0.569%G +0.036% | 4.5% | 2026-09-06 23:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -6.12%E -5.94%K -204.03%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV +6.26%E +0.522%K +0.569%G +0.036% | 5.4% | 2026-09-06 23:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -6.12%E -5.94%K -204.03%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV +6.26%E +0.522%K +0.569%G +0.036% | 5.4% | 2026-09-06 23:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.76%EV -4.30%E -4.09%K -85.96%G +0.000% | 11.69I 8.55%NM 8.24%EV +3.52%E +0.301%K +0.329%G +0.012% | 3.8% | 2026-09-06 23:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.76%EV -4.30%E -4.09%K -85.96%G +0.000% | 11.69I 8.55%NM 8.24%EV +3.52%E +0.301%K +0.329%G +0.012% | 3.8% | 2026-09-06 23:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.56%EV -3.39%E -3.19%K -56.44%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.44%EV +1.84%E +0.160%K +0.175%G +0.003% | 3.0% | 2026-09-06 21:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.56%EV -3.39%E -3.19%K -56.44%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.44%EV +1.84%E +0.160%K +0.175%G +0.003% | 3.0% | 2026-09-06 23:33 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.78%EV -6.12%E -5.94%K -204.03%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.22%EV +1.84%E +0.160%K +0.175%G +0.003% | 5.8% | 2026-09-06 22:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.85%EV -7.03%E -6.89%K -351.62%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.15%EV +1.84%E +0.160%K +0.175%G +0.003% | 6.7% | 2026-09-06 22:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.85%EV -7.03%E -6.89%K -351.62%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.15%EV +1.84%E +0.160%K +0.175%G +0.003% | 6.7% | 2026-09-06 23:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.30%E -4.09%K -85.96%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -2.59%E -0.236%K -0.259%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-20 21:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.30%E -4.09%K -85.96%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -2.59%E -0.236%K -0.259%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-06 23:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.30%E -4.09%K -85.96%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -2.59%E -0.236%K -0.259%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-06 20:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.21%E -5.01%K -130.24%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -2.59%E -0.236%K -0.259%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-06 15:45 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.10%EV -3.39%E -3.19%K -56.44%G +0.000% | 10.85I 9.22%NM 8.90%EV -3.92%E -0.361%K -0.398%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-06 22:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.83%EV -3.39%E -3.19%K -56.44%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.17%EV -7.02%E -0.668%K -0.739%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-06 23:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -4.30%E -4.09%K -85.96%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV -7.02%E -0.668%K -0.739%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-06 15:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.21%E -5.01%K -130.24%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -7.02%E -0.668%K -0.739%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-06 23:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.21%E -5.01%K -130.24%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -7.02%E -0.668%K -0.739%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-06 23:40 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.95%EV -6.12%E -5.94%K -204.03%G +0.000% | 10.35I 9.66%NM 9.05%EV -8.35%E -0.807%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-06 23:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 90.53%EV -2.48%E -2.31%K -35.36%G +0.000% | 10.23I 9.78%NM 9.47%EV -9.41%E -0.920%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-06 23:35 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -3.39%E -3.19%K -56.44%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -11.45%E -1.14%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-06 19:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.30%E -4.09%K -85.96%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -11.45%E -1.14%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-06 23:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.30%E -4.09%K -85.96%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -11.45%E -1.14%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-06 23:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.30%E -4.09%K -85.96%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -11.45%E -1.14%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-06 23:15 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.30%E -4.09%K -85.96%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -11.45%E -1.14%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 13:07 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.21%E -5.01%K -130.24%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -11.45%E -1.14%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-06 22:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.21%E -5.01%K -130.24%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -11.45%E -1.14%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.21%E -5.01%K -130.24%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -11.45%E -1.14%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-06 23:14 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.21%E -5.01%K -130.24%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -11.45%E -1.14%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-06 23:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -3.39%E -3.19%K -56.44%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -15.87%E -1.67%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-06 21:53 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -3.39%E -3.19%K -56.44%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -15.87%E -1.67%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-06 23:35 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.72%EV -3.39%E -3.19%K -56.44%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.28%EV -18.09%E -1.96%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-06 23:35 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -3.39%E -3.19%K -56.44%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -20.30%E -2.26%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-06 23:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -4.30%E -4.09%K -85.96%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -20.30%E -2.26%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-06 23:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -4.30%E -4.09%K -85.96%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -20.30%E -2.26%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-06 04:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -4.30%E -4.09%K -85.96%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -29.16%E -3.64%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-06 23:33 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -4.30%E -4.09%K -85.96%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -29.16%E -3.64%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-06 23:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 1.09I 91.74%NM 91.52% | 11.76I 8.50%NM 8.48% | 0.2% | 2026-09-06 23:28 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 92.33% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.67% | 0.3% | 2026-09-06 23:29 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.09I 91.74%NM 91.07% | 11.11I 9.00%NM 8.93% | 0.7% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.41% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.59% | 1.3% | 2026-09-06 23:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.41% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.59% | 1.3% | 2026-09-06 23:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.41% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.59% | 1.3% | 2026-09-06 23:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.06% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.94% | 1.7% | 2026-09-06 23:45 |