The School of Odds

Memphis Tigers v Arkansas State Red Wolves

2026-09-05 23:00 UTC — NCAAF

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Memphis Tigers (Local)

Prediction 77.29%1.29fair odd
EV -4.16%
Edge -3.35%
Kelly -17.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.00%77.33%77.28%78.29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.201.231.241.2483.33%81.18%80.65%80.65%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Arkansas State Red Wolves (Visit)

Prediction 22.71%4.40fair odd
EV -0.091%
Edge -0.021%
Kelly -0.027%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.71%22.67%22.72%24.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.804.144.204.4026.32%24.15%23.81%22.73%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -4.16%E -3.35%K -17.32%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -3.50%E -0.823%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-26 19:45
FanDuel1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -4.16%E -3.35%K -17.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -4.63%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-23 13:25
DraftKings1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -4.16%E -3.35%K -17.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -4.63%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-20 20:50
GTbets1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -4.16%E -3.35%K -17.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -4.63%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-22 13:29
betPARX1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -4.16%E -3.35%K -17.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -4.63%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-08 21:15
Svenska Spel1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -4.16%E -3.35%K -17.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -4.63%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-08 21:14
Bally Bet1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -4.16%E -3.35%K -17.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -4.63%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-08 21:14
ATG (SE)1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -4.16%E -3.35%K -17.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -4.63%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-08 21:14
Bovada1.24I 80.65%NM 76.99%EV -4.16%E -3.35%K -17.32%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.01%EV -5.77%E -1.39%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-20 20:50
Unibet (NL)1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.16%E -3.35%K -17.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -6.90%E -1.68%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-08 21:15
Unibet (SE)1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.16%E -3.35%K -17.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -6.90%E -1.68%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-08 21:14
BetRivers1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.16%E -3.35%K -17.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -6.90%E -1.68%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-08 21:15
Unibet1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.16%E -3.35%K -17.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -9.17%E -2.29%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-08 21:14
LeoVegas (SE)1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.16%E -3.35%K -17.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -9.17%E -2.29%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-08 21:15
Coolbet1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.93%E -4.01%K -21.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -4.63%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-24 13:50
Betr (AU)1.23I 81.30%NM 76.70%EV -4.93%E -4.01%K -21.43%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.30%EV -8.04%E -1.98%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-23 13:25
theScore Bet1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -5.70%E -4.67%K -25.92%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -0.091%E -0.021%K -0.027%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-14 20:04
Hard Rock Bet1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -5.70%E -4.67%K -25.92%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -3.50%E -0.823%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-20 20:40
Unibet (UK)1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.70%E -4.67%K -25.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -4.63%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-20 20:39
MyBookie.ag1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -5.70%E -4.67%K -25.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -6.90%E -1.68%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-07 21:04
PointsBet (AU)1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -7.25%E -6.04%K -36.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.17%E -2.29%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-21 15:15
LeoVegas1.20I 83.33%NM 76.00%EV -7.25%E -6.04%K -36.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -13.71%E -3.61%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-19 20:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.