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Louisville Cardinals v SMU Mustangs
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Louisville Cardinals (Local)
Prediction 56.67%1.76fair odd
EV -2.53%
Edge -1.47%
Kelly -3.52%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.72
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.91%56.80%56.63%58.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.641.671.671.7260.98%59.81%59.88%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
SMU Mustangs (Visit)
Prediction 43.33%2.31fair odd
EV +0.968%
Edge +0.415%
Kelly +0.728%
Growth +0.007%
assuming max odds 2.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.46%43.20%43.37%44.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.212.202.3347.62%45.33%45.45%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Louisville Cardinals (Local): 56.67%; SMU Mustangs (Visit): 43.33%. For SMU Mustangs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.31. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.33, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.968%.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.54%EV -6.50%E -3.94%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.46%EV +0.968%E +0.415%K +0.728%G +0.007% | 3.5% | 2026-09-19 19:24 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.54%EV -6.50%E -3.94%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.46%EV +0.968%E +0.415%K +0.728%G +0.007% | 3.5% | 2026-09-19 19:24 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -5.37%E -3.21%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -0.332%E -0.144%K -0.255%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-19 18:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.08%EV -5.93%E -3.57%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.92%EV -0.332%E -0.144%K -0.255%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-19 19:24 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.23%E -2.51%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.50%E -1.11%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-19 18:54 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.23%E -2.51%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.50%E -1.11%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-19 18:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.37%E -3.21%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.50%E -1.11%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-19 18:59 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -5.93%E -3.57%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -2.50%E -1.11%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-19 19:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -5.93%E -3.57%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -2.50%E -1.11%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-19 19:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -5.93%E -3.57%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -2.50%E -1.11%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-19 19:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -5.93%E -3.57%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -2.50%E -1.11%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-19 19:19 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.46%EV -2.53%E -1.47%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.54%EV -3.37%E -1.51%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-09-19 18:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -6.50%E -3.94%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -3.37%E -1.51%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-19 19:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -6.50%E -3.94%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -3.37%E -1.51%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-19 19:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -6.50%E -3.94%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -3.37%E -1.51%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-19 19:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%EV -7.07%E -4.31%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%EV -3.37%E -1.51%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-19 19:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%EV -7.07%E -4.31%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%EV -3.37%E -1.51%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-19 19:19 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -3.67%E -2.16%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -3.80%E -1.71%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-19 18:52 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.92%EV -4.80%E -2.86%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.08%EV -3.80%E -1.71%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-19 18:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.10%E -1.81%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.67%E -2.12%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-19 18:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.10%E -1.81%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.67%E -2.12%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-19 18:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.67%E -2.16%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.67%E -2.12%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-19 18:25 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.23%E -2.51%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.67%E -2.12%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-19 18:53 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.23%E -2.51%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.67%E -2.12%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-19 18:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.23%E -2.51%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.67%E -2.12%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-19 18:49 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.80%E -2.86%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.67%E -2.12%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-19 19:04 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.80%E -2.86%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.67%E -2.12%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-19 18:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.80%E -2.86%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.67%E -2.12%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-19 19:24 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.80%E -2.86%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.67%E -2.12%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-19 19:24 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.37%E -3.21%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.67%E -2.12%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-19 18:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.37%E -3.21%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.67%E -2.12%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-19 18:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.80%E -2.86%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.53%E -2.54%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-19 19:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.80%E -2.86%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.53%E -2.54%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-19 19:14 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.62%EV -5.37%E -3.21%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.38%EV -5.53%E -2.54%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-19 19:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.96%EV -7.07%E -4.31%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.04%EV -5.97%E -2.75%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-19 19:14 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.54%EV -5.93%E -3.57%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.46%EV -6.40%E -2.96%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-19 19:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.80%E -2.86%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.83%E -3.18%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-19 18:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.80%E -2.86%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.83%E -3.18%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-19 18:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.80%E -2.86%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.83%E -3.18%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-19 18:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.37%E -3.21%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.83%E -3.18%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-19 19:19 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.37%E -3.21%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.83%E -3.18%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-19 19:24 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.91%EV -4.80%E -2.86%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.09%EV -7.70%E -3.61%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-19 19:23 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.50%E -3.94%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -9.00%E -4.29%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-19 19:22 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.50%E -3.94%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -9.00%E -4.29%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-19 19:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.50%E -3.94%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -9.00%E -4.29%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-19 19:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 57.00% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 43.00% | 0.2% | 2026-09-19 19:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 57.00% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 43.00% | 0.2% | 2026-09-19 19:24 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86% | 0.6% | 2026-09-19 19:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21% | 0.6% | 2026-09-19 19:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21% | 0.6% | 2026-09-19 19:09 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53% | 1.2% | 2026-09-19 18:45 |