Louisville Cardinals v SMU Mustangs

2026-09-19 19:30 UTC — NCAAF

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

50%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Louisville Cardinals (Local)

Prediction 50.39%1.98fair odd

EV -4.76%

Edge -2.52%

Kelly -5.34%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

50.26%50.39%50.39%50.52%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.831.871.881.8954.64%53.55%53.33%52.91%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

SMU Mustangs (Visit)

Prediction 49.61%2.02fair odd

EV -4.26%

Edge -2.21%

Kelly -4.58%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

49.48%49.61%49.61%49.74%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.851.901.901.9354.05%52.77%52.63%51.81%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings	1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -4.76%E -2.52%K -5.34%G +0.000%	1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -4.26%E -2.21%K -4.58%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-07-26 15:05
Unibet (UK)	1.88I 53.19%NM 50.26%EV -5.26%E -2.80%K -5.98%G +0.000%	1.90I 52.63%NM 49.74%EV -5.75%E -3.03%K -6.39%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-26 15:10
MyBookie.ag	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.40%EV -5.76%E -3.08%K -6.62%G +0.000%	1.90I 52.63%NM 49.60%EV -5.75%E -3.03%K -6.39%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-07-26 15:09
LeoVegas	1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -7.78%E -4.25%K -9.37%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%EV -8.23%E -4.45%K -9.68%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-07-26 15:10

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.