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Liberty Flames v Ball State Cardinals
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Liberty Flames (Local)
Prediction 83.02%1.20fair odd
EV -0.382%
Edge -0.318%
Kelly -1.91%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.38%82.78%83.21%85.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.141.141.2090.09%87.61%87.72%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ball State Cardinals (Visit)
Prediction 16.98%5.89fair odd
EV +10.40%
Edge +1.60%
Kelly +1.89%
Growth +0.197%
assuming max odds 6.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.59%17.22%16.79%21.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.355.745.756.5022.99%17.43%17.39%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Liberty Flames (Local): 83.02%; Ball State Cardinals (Visit): 16.98%. For Ball State Cardinals (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.89. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.40%.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -7.02%E -6.27%K -58.52%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV +10.40%E +1.60%K +1.89%G +0.197% | 4.7% | 2026-09-19 19:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -7.02%E -6.27%K -58.52%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV +10.40%E +1.60%K +1.89%G +0.197% | 4.7% | 2026-09-19 19:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -7.02%E -6.27%K -58.52%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV +10.40%E +1.60%K +1.89%G +0.197% | 4.7% | 2026-09-19 19:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -7.02%E -6.27%K -58.52%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV +10.40%E +1.60%K +1.89%G +0.197% | 4.7% | 2026-09-19 19:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -7.85%E -7.07%K -71.39%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +10.40%E +1.60%K +1.89%G +0.197% | 5.5% | 2026-09-19 19:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -7.85%E -7.07%K -71.39%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +10.40%E +1.60%K +1.89%G +0.197% | 5.5% | 2026-09-19 19:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -7.85%E -7.07%K -71.39%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +10.40%E +1.60%K +1.89%G +0.197% | 5.5% | 2026-09-19 19:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -7.85%E -7.07%K -71.39%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +10.40%E +1.60%K +1.89%G +0.197% | 5.5% | 2026-09-19 19:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -7.85%E -7.07%K -71.39%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +10.40%E +1.60%K +1.89%G +0.197% | 5.5% | 2026-09-19 19:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -5.36%E -4.70%K -38.30%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +1.91%E +0.318%K +0.382%G +0.007% | 4.4% | 2026-09-17 20:15 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -5.36%E -4.70%K -38.30%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +1.91%E +0.318%K +0.382%G +0.007% | 4.4% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -6.19%E -5.48%K -47.64%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV +1.91%E +0.318%K +0.382%G +0.007% | 5.2% | 2026-09-17 20:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -6.19%E -5.48%K -47.64%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV +1.91%E +0.318%K +0.382%G +0.007% | 5.2% | 2026-09-17 20:14 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.59%EV -4.53%E -3.94%K -30.22%G +0.000% | 5.86I 17.06%NM 16.41%EV -0.470%E -0.080%K -0.097%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-19 19:44 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -5.36%E -4.70%K -38.30%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -1.49%E -0.257%K -0.310%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-19 19:49 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -5.36%E -4.70%K -38.30%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -1.49%E -0.257%K -0.310%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-19 15:48 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.36%EV -4.53%E -3.94%K -30.22%G +0.000% | 5.76I 17.36%NM 16.64%EV -2.17%E -0.376%K -0.456%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.36%EV -4.53%E -3.94%K -30.22%G +0.000% | 5.76I 17.36%NM 16.64%EV -2.17%E -0.376%K -0.456%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.21%EV -3.70%E -3.19%K -23.14%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.79%EV -2.34%E -0.407%K -0.492%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-19 19:49 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.33%EV -4.53%E -3.94%K -30.22%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.67%EV -2.34%E -0.407%K -0.492%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-19 19:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.33%EV -4.53%E -3.94%K -30.22%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.67%EV -2.34%E -0.407%K -0.492%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.36%E -4.70%K -38.30%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -2.34%E -0.407%K -0.492%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-19 19:47 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.21%EV -4.53%E -3.94%K -30.22%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.79%EV -3.19%E -0.559%K -0.678%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.21%EV -4.53%E -3.94%K -30.22%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.79%EV -3.19%E -0.559%K -0.678%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-17 17:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.36%E -4.70%K -38.30%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -4.89%E -0.872%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.53%E -3.94%K -30.22%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -6.58%E -1.20%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.53%E -3.94%K -30.22%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -6.58%E -1.20%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.53%E -3.94%K -30.22%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -6.58%E -1.20%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.36%E -4.70%K -38.30%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -6.58%E -1.20%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-19 18:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.32%EV -3.70%E -3.19%K -23.14%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV -8.28%E -1.53%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-19 17:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -3.70%E -3.19%K -23.14%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV -9.98%E -1.88%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-19 19:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.19%EV -5.36%E -4.70%K -38.30%G +0.000% | 5.26I 19.01%NM 17.81%EV -10.66%E -2.03%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-19 19:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -3.70%E -3.19%K -23.14%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -10.83%E -2.06%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-17 17:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -4.53%E -3.94%K -30.22%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -10.83%E -2.06%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-19 18:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -4.53%E -3.94%K -30.22%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -10.83%E -2.06%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-19 19:49 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -4.53%E -3.94%K -30.22%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -10.83%E -2.06%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-19 19:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.29%EV -6.19%E -5.48%K -47.64%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -10.83%E -2.06%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-19 19:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.02%EV -5.36%E -4.70%K -38.30%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -11.68%E -2.25%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.87%E -2.45%K -16.89%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -15.08%E -3.02%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-19 17:29 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -3.70%E -3.19%K -23.14%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -15.08%E -3.02%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-14 23:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.38%EV -0.382%E -0.318%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -26.12%E -6.00%K -7.80%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-19 19:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.64% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 15.36% | 0.1% | 2026-09-19 19:49 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.43% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.57% | 0.4% | 2026-09-19 19:44 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55% | 0.7% | 2026-09-19 19:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55% | 0.7% | 2026-09-19 19:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55% | 0.7% | 2026-09-19 19:49 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55% | 0.7% | 2026-09-19 19:34 |