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Magdalena Frech v Iga Swiatek
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Magdalena Frech (Local)
Prediction 10.01%9.99fair odd
EV +13.44%
Edge +1.19%
Kelly +1.30%
Growth +0.175%
assuming max odds 11.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.56%10.23%9.95%13.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.608.918.6511.3315.15%11.23%11.56%8.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Iga Swiatek (Visit)
Prediction 89.99%1.11fair odd
EV -3.71%
Edge -3.47%
Kelly -53.05%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.07
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
86.39%89.77%90.05%91.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.061.061.0798.04%94.40%94.34%93.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Magdalena Frech (Local): 10.01%; Iga Swiatek (Visit): 89.99%. For Magdalena Frech (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.99. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.33, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.44%.
Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 11.33I 8.83%NM 8.56%EV +13.44%E +1.19%K +1.30%G +0.175% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.44%EV -4.61%E -4.35%K -76.89%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-10-14 03:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +10.14%E +0.922%K +1.01%G +0.103% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -4.61%E -4.35%K -76.89%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-13 22:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.67%EV +0.126%E +0.013%K +0.014%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 90.33%EV -3.71%E -3.47%K -53.05%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-10-14 03:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.67%EV +0.126%E +0.013%K +0.014%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 90.33%EV -3.71%E -3.47%K -53.05%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-10-14 03:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV +0.126%E +0.013%K +0.014%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -4.61%E -4.35%K -76.89%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-12 11:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +0.126%E +0.013%K +0.014%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.51%E -5.25%K -110.26%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-14 02:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV +0.126%E +0.013%K +0.014%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -8.21%E -8.05%K -410.64%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-14 02:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 9.95I 10.05%NM 9.55%EV -0.375%E -0.038%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.45%EV -5.51%E -5.25%K -110.26%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-14 02:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 9.95I 10.05%NM 9.55%EV -0.375%E -0.038%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.45%EV -5.51%E -5.25%K -110.26%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-14 02:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.76%EV -1.88%E -0.191%K -0.213%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.24%EV -4.61%E -4.35%K -76.89%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-14 03:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.68%EV -1.88%E -0.191%K -0.213%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.32%EV -5.51%E -5.25%K -110.26%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-14 03:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -4.88%E -0.514%K -0.574%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.51%E -5.25%K -110.26%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-13 22:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -4.88%E -0.514%K -0.574%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.51%E -5.25%K -110.26%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-12 15:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -4.88%E -0.514%K -0.574%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -6.41%E -6.17%K -160.33%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-12 15:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -4.88%E -0.514%K -0.574%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -6.41%E -6.17%K -160.33%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-12 15:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.13%EV -5.88%E -0.626%K -0.700%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.87%EV -4.61%E -4.35%K -76.89%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-12 16:09 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.19%EV -7.38%E -0.798%K -0.895%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.81%EV -5.51%E -5.25%K -110.26%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-14 02:34 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.24%EV -7.88%E -0.857%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.76%EV -5.51%E -5.25%K -110.26%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-14 03:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -9.89%E -1.10%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.61%E -4.35%K -76.89%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-14 02:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -9.89%E -1.10%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.61%E -4.35%K -76.89%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-14 03:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -9.89%E -1.10%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.61%E -4.35%K -76.89%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-13 02:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -9.89%E -1.10%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.61%E -4.35%K -76.89%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-13 02:39 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -9.89%E -1.10%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.61%E -4.35%K -76.89%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-13 02:39 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -9.89%E -1.10%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.61%E -4.35%K -76.89%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-13 02:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -9.89%E -1.10%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -5.51%E -5.25%K -110.26%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-12 15:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -9.89%E -1.10%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -5.51%E -5.25%K -110.26%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-12 15:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.90%EV -12.39%E -1.42%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.10%EV -3.71%E -3.47%K -53.05%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-14 03:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 8.70I 11.49%NM 10.95%EV -12.89%E -1.48%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.05%EV -3.71%E -3.47%K -53.05%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-13 23:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 8.60I 11.63%NM 10.79%EV -13.89%E -1.62%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.21%EV -6.41%E -6.17%K -160.33%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-14 02:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 8.55I 11.70%NM 11.12%EV -14.39%E -1.68%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.88%EV -3.71%E -3.47%K -53.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-14 02:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -14.89%E -1.75%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -3.71%E -3.47%K -53.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-12 16:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -14.89%E -1.75%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -3.71%E -3.47%K -53.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-12 16:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -14.89%E -1.75%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -3.71%E -3.47%K -53.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-12 16:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -14.89%E -1.75%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -3.71%E -3.47%K -53.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-12 16:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -14.89%E -1.75%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -3.71%E -3.47%K -53.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-12 16:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -14.89%E -1.75%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -3.71%E -3.47%K -53.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-12 16:04 |
| Casumo🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -14.89%E -1.75%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -3.71%E -3.47%K -53.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-12 16:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -14.89%E -1.75%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -3.71%E -3.47%K -53.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-12 16:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -14.89%E -1.75%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -3.71%E -3.47%K -53.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-12 16:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -14.89%E -1.75%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -3.71%E -3.47%K -53.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-12 16:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -14.89%E -1.75%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -3.71%E -3.47%K -53.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-12 16:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -14.89%E -1.75%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -3.71%E -3.47%K -53.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-12 16:04 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -14.89%E -1.75%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -3.71%E -3.47%K -53.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-12 16:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -14.89%E -1.75%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -3.71%E -3.47%K -53.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-12 16:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -14.89%E -1.75%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -3.71%E -3.47%K -53.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-12 16:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -14.89%E -1.75%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -4.61%E -4.35%K -76.89%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-13 23:24 |
| TAB🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -14.89%E -1.75%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -5.51%E -5.25%K -110.26%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-14 02:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -14.89%E -1.75%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -5.51%E -5.25%K -110.26%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-13 23:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.48%EV -17.40%E -2.11%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.52%EV -3.71%E -3.47%K -53.05%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-14 03:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.48%EV -17.40%E -2.11%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.52%EV -3.71%E -3.47%K -53.05%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-14 03:04 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.48%EV -17.40%E -2.11%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.52%EV -3.71%E -3.47%K -53.05%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-13 17:50 |
| ReBet🎯 | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.48%EV -17.40%E -2.11%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.52%EV -3.71%E -3.47%K -53.05%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-14 03:02 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.31%EV -19.90%E -2.49%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 88.69%EV -8.21%E -8.05%K -410.64%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-10-12 16:04 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -29.91%E -4.27%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.85%EV -4.61%E -4.35%K -76.89%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-14 01:43 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -29.91%E -4.27%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.85%EV -4.61%E -4.35%K -76.89%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-14 02:03 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 6.60I 15.15%NM 13.61%EV -33.92%E -5.14%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 86.39%EV -6.41%E -6.17%K -160.33%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-10-14 02:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.74% | 0.9% | 2026-10-14 02:45 |
| Novig◎ | 11.76I 8.50%NM 8.41% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.59% | 1.1% | 2026-10-14 03:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.19% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 91.81% | 1.8% | 2026-10-14 03:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.19% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 91.81% | 1.8% | 2026-10-14 03:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.19% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 91.81% | 1.8% | 2026-10-14 03:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.05% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.95% | 3.6% | 2026-10-14 03:05 |