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Jelena Ostapenko v Jessica Pegula
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jelena Ostapenko (Local)
Prediction 28.18%3.55fair odd
EV +2.31%
Edge +0.636%
Kelly +0.878%
Growth +0.020%
assuming max odds 3.63
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.52%28.40%28.04%31.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.383.403.6333.33%29.56%29.41%27.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jessica Pegula (Visit)
Prediction 71.82%1.39fair odd
EV -0.177%
Edge -0.127%
Kelly -0.453%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.39
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.81%71.60%71.96%73.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.321.311.3980.00%75.93%76.34%71.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jelena Ostapenko (Local): 28.18%; Jessica Pegula (Visit): 71.82%. For Jelena Ostapenko (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.55. 18 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.63, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.31%.
Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.52%EV +2.31%E +0.636%K +0.878%G +0.020% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.48%EV -5.92%E -4.52%K -19.10%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-14 07:39 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.52%EV +2.31%E +0.636%K +0.878%G +0.020% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.48%EV -5.92%E -4.52%K -19.10%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-14 07:39 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV +1.46%E +0.407%K +0.563%G +0.008% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -5.92%E -4.52%K -19.10%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-14 07:44 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.56I 28.09%NM 27.35%EV +0.338%E +0.095%K +0.132%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.65%EV -3.77%E -2.81%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-10-14 08:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.056%E +0.016%K +0.022%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.64%E -5.11%K -22.13%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-14 07:44 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.056%E +0.016%K +0.022%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.64%E -5.11%K -22.13%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-14 07:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.056%E +0.016%K +0.022%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.64%E -5.11%K -22.13%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-14 07:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.056%E +0.016%K +0.022%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.64%E -5.11%K -22.13%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-14 07:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.056%E +0.016%K +0.022%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.64%E -5.11%K -22.13%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-14 07:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.056%E +0.016%K +0.022%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.64%E -5.11%K -22.13%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-14 07:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.056%E +0.016%K +0.022%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.64%E -5.11%K -22.13%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-14 07:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.056%E +0.016%K +0.022%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.64%E -5.11%K -22.13%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-14 07:44 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.056%E +0.016%K +0.022%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.64%E -5.11%K -22.13%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-14 07:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.056%E +0.016%K +0.022%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.64%E -5.11%K -22.13%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-14 07:44 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.056%E +0.016%K +0.022%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.64%E -5.11%K -22.13%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-14 07:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.056%E +0.016%K +0.022%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.64%E -5.11%K -22.13%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-14 07:44 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.056%E +0.016%K +0.022%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.64%E -5.11%K -22.13%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-14 07:44 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.056%E +0.016%K +0.022%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.64%E -5.11%K -22.13%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-14 07:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -1.35%E -0.387%K -0.541%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.64%E -5.11%K -22.13%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-14 07:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -1.35%E -0.387%K -0.541%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.64%E -5.11%K -22.13%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-14 07:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -1.35%E -0.387%K -0.541%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.64%E -5.11%K -22.13%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-14 07:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -1.35%E -0.387%K -0.541%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.64%E -5.11%K -22.13%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-14 07:44 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -1.35%E -0.387%K -0.541%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.64%E -5.11%K -22.13%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-14 07:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.47I 28.82%NM 27.41%EV -2.20%E -0.634%K -0.890%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.59%EV -5.92%E -4.52%K -19.10%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-14 08:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -2.76%E -0.801%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -5.20%E -3.94%K -16.26%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-14 07:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.85%EV -3.61%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.15%EV -5.20%E -3.94%K -16.26%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-14 07:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -4.17%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.49%E -3.37%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-14 07:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -4.17%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.49%E -3.37%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-14 07:43 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -4.17%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.20%E -3.94%K -16.26%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-14 07:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -4.17%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.20%E -3.94%K -16.26%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-14 07:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -4.17%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -5.92%E -4.52%K -19.10%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-14 07:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -4.17%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.64%E -5.11%K -22.13%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-14 08:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -5.58%E -1.67%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.20%E -3.94%K -16.26%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-14 08:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -5.58%E -1.67%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.20%E -3.94%K -16.26%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-14 05:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -5.58%E -1.67%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.83%EV -10.23%E -8.18%K -40.92%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-14 07:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.49%E -3.37%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-14 07:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.20%E -3.94%K -16.26%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-14 08:04 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -8.08%E -6.31%K -28.84%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-14 07:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -8.08%E -6.31%K -28.84%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-14 08:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -8.40%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.49%E -3.37%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-14 07:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -8.40%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.49%E -3.37%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-14 05:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -9.81%E -3.07%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -2.33%E -1.71%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-14 07:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -9.81%E -3.07%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -4.49%E -3.37%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-14 08:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -9.81%E -3.07%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -4.49%E -3.37%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-14 08:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -9.81%E -3.07%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -5.20%E -3.94%K -16.26%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-14 07:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.62%EV -11.22%E -3.56%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.38%EV -0.177%E -0.127%K -0.453%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-14 02:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -12.63%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -1.61%E -1.18%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-14 02:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -12.63%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -3.05%E -2.26%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-14 07:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -12.63%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -3.05%E -2.26%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-14 08:04 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -12.63%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%EV -5.20%E -3.94%K -16.26%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-14 00:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -12.63%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.45%EV -6.64%E -5.11%K -22.13%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-14 06:09 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.94%EV -13.19%E -4.28%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.06%EV -0.895%E -0.648%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-14 05:14 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -14.04%E -4.60%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.00%EV -1.61%E -1.18%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-14 02:35 |
| picklebet_au🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -15.45%E -5.15%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -2.33%E -1.71%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-14 07:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.15% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.85% | 0.9% | 2026-10-14 08:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27% | 1.1% | 2026-10-14 08:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27% | 1.1% | 2026-10-14 08:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27% | 1.1% | 2026-10-14 08:05 |
| Novig◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.59% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.41% | 1.7% | 2026-10-14 08:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.71% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.29% | 2.6% | 2026-10-14 08:05 |