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Jasmine Paolini v Sara Bejlek
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jasmine Paolini (Local)
Prediction 46.85%2.13fair odd
EV +0.730%
Edge +0.339%
Kelly +0.635%
Growth +0.005%
assuming max odds 2.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.15%46.79%46.96%48.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.992.002.1554.05%50.16%50.00%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sara Bejlek (Visit)
Prediction 53.15%1.88fair odd
EV -1.67%
Edge -0.905%
Kelly -1.97%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.10%53.21%53.04%54.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.791.781.8558.14%55.95%56.18%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jasmine Paolini (Local): 46.85%; Sara Bejlek (Visit): 53.15%. For Jasmine Paolini (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.13. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.730%.
Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 45.15%EV +0.730%E +0.339%K +0.635%G +0.005% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.85%EV -5.93%E -3.35%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-10-12 06:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -1.61%E -0.768%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -8.05%E -4.65%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-12 05:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.99%EV -2.08%E -0.996%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.01%EV -5.39%E -3.03%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-11 21:49 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.99%EV -2.08%E -0.996%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.01%EV -5.39%E -3.03%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-11 21:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -2.55%E -1.23%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -6.46%E -3.67%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-12 06:04 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 47.03%EV -3.96%E -1.93%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.97%EV -3.27%E -1.80%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-11 23:04 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.96%E -1.93%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.33%E -2.41%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-12 02:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.96%E -1.93%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.93%E -3.35%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 21:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -3.96%E -1.93%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-12 06:09 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -3.96%E -1.93%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-12 06:08 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -3.96%E -1.93%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-11 21:03 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -3.96%E -1.93%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-11 22:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.00%EV -4.89%E -2.41%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.00%EV -4.33%E -2.41%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-11 23:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.00%EV -4.89%E -2.41%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.00%EV -4.33%E -2.41%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-11 23:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.00%EV -4.89%E -2.41%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.00%EV -4.33%E -2.41%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-12 00:24 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -5.36%E -2.65%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -3.27%E -1.80%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-12 05:48 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -5.36%E -2.65%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -5.39%E -3.03%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-12 06:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -5.36%E -2.65%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-12 06:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -5.36%E -2.65%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-12 06:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 46.97%EV -5.83%E -2.90%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.03%EV -5.39%E -3.03%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-12 06:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.30%E -3.15%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.74%E -1.50%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-12 05:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.30%E -3.15%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.33%E -2.41%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-11 23:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.30%E -3.15%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.33%E -2.41%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-12 06:09 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -6.30%E -3.15%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -5.39%E -3.03%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-11 23:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.30%E -3.15%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.93%E -3.35%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-11 20:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.30%E -3.15%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.05%E -4.65%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-12 06:04 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.30%E -3.15%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.05%E -4.65%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-12 06:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.30%E -3.15%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.05%E -4.65%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-12 06:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.30%E -3.15%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.05%E -4.65%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-12 06:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.30%E -3.15%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.05%E -4.65%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-12 06:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.30%E -3.15%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.05%E -4.65%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-12 06:09 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.30%E -3.15%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.05%E -4.65%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-12 06:04 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -6.30%E -3.15%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -8.58%E -4.99%K -11.92%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-12 05:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.20%EV -7.23%E -3.65%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV -5.93%E -3.35%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-12 06:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.06%EV -7.23%E -3.65%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.94%EV -6.46%E -3.67%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-12 06:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -8.64%E -4.43%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -1.67%E -0.905%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 14:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -8.64%E -4.43%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -1.67%E -0.905%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 14:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -8.64%E -4.43%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -1.67%E -0.905%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 13:59 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -8.64%E -4.43%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -2.74%E -1.50%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-11 13:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.64%E -4.43%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.33%E -2.41%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-12 06:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.64%E -4.43%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.33%E -2.41%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-11 21:19 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -8.64%E -4.43%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-11 23:04 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -8.64%E -4.43%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-11 23:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -8.64%E -4.43%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -8.05%E -4.65%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-11 23:04 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -9.11%E -4.70%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -1.67%E -0.905%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-11 13:59 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -9.11%E -4.70%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -1.67%E -0.905%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-11 13:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -9.11%E -4.70%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -1.67%E -0.905%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-11 13:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -9.11%E -4.70%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -1.67%E -0.905%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-11 13:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -9.11%E -4.70%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -1.67%E -0.905%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-11 13:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -9.11%E -4.70%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -1.67%E -0.905%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-11 13:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -9.11%E -4.70%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -1.67%E -0.905%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-11 13:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -9.11%E -4.70%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -1.67%E -0.905%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-11 13:59 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -9.11%E -4.70%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -1.67%E -0.905%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-11 13:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -9.11%E -4.70%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -1.67%E -0.905%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-11 14:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -9.11%E -4.70%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -1.67%E -0.905%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-11 16:14 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.51%EV -10.98%E -5.78%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.49%EV -8.58%E -4.99%K -11.92%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-12 06:08 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.90%EV -13.33%E -7.20%K -15.68%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.10%EV -5.93%E -3.35%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-11 14:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.12I 47.17%NM 47.00% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 53.00% | 0.4% | 2026-10-12 06:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.24% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.76% | 0.8% | 2026-10-12 06:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.24% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.76% | 0.8% | 2026-10-12 06:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.24% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.76% | 0.8% | 2026-10-12 06:10 |
| Novig◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.31% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.69% | 2.6% | 2026-10-12 06:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.32% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.68% | 3.5% | 2026-10-12 06:10 |