Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ashlyn Krueger v Iga Swiatek

Kickoff: 2026-10-15 11:20 UTC

Final: Ashlyn Krueger 0–2 Iga Swiatek

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

59 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

12%

88%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ashlyn Krueger (Local)

Prediction 11.92%8.39fair odd

EV +18.59%

Edge +1.87%

Kelly +2.08%

Growth +0.386%

assuming max odds 9.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

9.55%11.92%11.89%14.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

6.257.938.009.9516.00%12.61%12.50%10.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Iga Swiatek (Visit)

Prediction 88.08%1.14fair odd

EV -2.23%

Edge -2.01%

Kelly -20.27%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

85.62%88.08%88.11%90.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.031.071.081.1197.09%93.06%92.59%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ashlyn Krueger (Local): 11.92%; Iga Swiatek (Visit): 88.08%. For Ashlyn Krueger (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.39. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +18.59%.

Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
LowVig.ag🎯	9.95I 10.05%NM 9.55%EV +18.59%E +1.87%K +2.08%G +0.386%	1.05I 95.24%NM 90.45%EV -7.51%E -7.16%K -150.30%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-15 09:15
BetOnline.ag🎯	9.95I 10.05%NM 9.55%EV +18.59%E +1.87%K +2.08%G +0.386%	1.05I 95.24%NM 90.45%EV -7.51%E -7.16%K -150.30%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-15 09:15
BetAnything🎯	9.95I 10.05%NM 9.55%EV +18.59%E +1.87%K +2.08%G +0.386%	1.05I 95.24%NM 90.45%EV -7.51%E -7.16%K -150.30%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-15 10:10
Pinnacle🎯	9.14I 10.94%NM 10.57%EV +8.94%E +0.978%K +1.10%G +0.098%	1.08I 92.59%NM 89.43%EV -4.87%E -4.51%K -60.90%G +0.000%	3.5%	2026-10-15 09:20
Winamax (DE)🎯	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.71%EV +7.27%E +0.808%K +0.909%G +0.066%	1.08I 92.59%NM 89.29%EV -4.87%E -4.51%K -60.90%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-10-15 08:50
BoyleSports🎯	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.71%EV +7.27%E +0.808%K +0.909%G +0.066%	1.08I 92.59%NM 89.29%EV -4.87%E -4.51%K -60.90%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-10-15 11:10
DraftKings🎯	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +7.27%E +0.808%K +0.909%G +0.066%	1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -5.75%E -5.38%K -82.19%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-10-15 11:15
Betway🎯	8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +1.31%E +0.154%K +0.175%G +0.002%	1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -5.75%E -5.38%K -82.19%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-10-15 09:10
PlayUp🎯	8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV +1.31%E +0.154%K +0.175%G +0.002%	1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -6.63%E -6.26%K -110.57%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-10-15 09:10
ReBet🎯	8.20I 12.20%NM 11.64%EV -2.27%E -0.276%K -0.315%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.36%EV -4.87%E -4.51%K -60.90%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-10-15 10:47
Tipico (DE)🎯	8.20I 12.20%NM 11.26%EV -2.27%E -0.276%K -0.315%G +0.000%	1.04I 96.15%NM 88.74%EV -8.40%E -8.07%K -209.89%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-10-15 03:40
Coolbet🎯	8.10I 12.35%NM 11.76%EV -3.46%E -0.427%K -0.487%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.24%EV -4.87%E -4.51%K -60.90%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-10-15 01:09
Unibet🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -4.65%E -0.581%K -0.664%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.87%E -4.51%K -60.90%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-14 20:24
Unibet (NL)🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -4.65%E -0.581%K -0.664%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.87%E -4.51%K -60.90%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-14 20:24
TABtouch🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -4.65%E -0.581%K -0.664%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.87%E -4.51%K -60.90%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-14 20:25
Unibet (SE)🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -4.65%E -0.581%K -0.664%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.87%E -4.51%K -60.90%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-14 20:25
Grosvenor🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -4.65%E -0.581%K -0.664%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.87%E -4.51%K -60.90%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-14 20:24
Casumo🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -4.65%E -0.581%K -0.664%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.87%E -4.51%K -60.90%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-14 20:25
LiveScore Bet🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -4.65%E -0.581%K -0.664%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.87%E -4.51%K -60.90%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-14 20:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -4.65%E -0.581%K -0.664%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.87%E -4.51%K -60.90%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-14 20:24
Virgin Bet🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -4.65%E -0.581%K -0.664%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.87%E -4.51%K -60.90%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-14 20:25
BetRivers🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -4.65%E -0.581%K -0.664%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.87%E -4.51%K -60.90%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-14 20:24
ATG (SE)🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -4.65%E -0.581%K -0.664%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.87%E -4.51%K -60.90%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-14 20:24
Bally Bet🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -4.65%E -0.581%K -0.664%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.87%E -4.51%K -60.90%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-14 20:23
betPARX🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -4.65%E -0.581%K -0.664%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.87%E -4.51%K -60.90%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-14 20:24
Svenska Spel🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -4.65%E -0.581%K -0.664%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.87%E -4.51%K -60.90%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-14 20:24
Hard Rock Bet🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -4.65%E -0.581%K -0.664%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.87%E -4.51%K -60.90%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-14 20:24
Fanatics🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -4.65%E -0.581%K -0.664%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.87%E -4.51%K -60.90%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-15 06:45
Unibet (UK)🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -4.65%E -0.581%K -0.664%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.87%E -4.51%K -60.90%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-15 06:35
SportsBet🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -4.65%E -0.581%K -0.664%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.87%E -4.51%K -60.90%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-15 07:50
Betr (AU)🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -4.65%E -0.581%K -0.664%G +0.000%	1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -5.75%E -5.38%K -82.19%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-10-15 11:15
William Hill🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -4.65%E -0.581%K -0.664%G +0.000%	1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -5.75%E -5.38%K -82.19%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-10-15 07:40
picklebet_au🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -4.65%E -0.581%K -0.664%G +0.000%	1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -5.75%E -5.38%K -82.19%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-10-15 10:50
LeoVegas🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -4.65%E -0.581%K -0.664%G +0.000%	1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -5.75%E -5.38%K -82.19%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-10-15 11:15
888sport🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -4.65%E -0.581%K -0.664%G +0.000%	1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -6.63%E -6.26%K -110.57%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-10-15 07:40
888sport (SE)🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -4.65%E -0.581%K -0.664%G +0.000%	1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -6.63%E -6.26%K -110.57%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-10-15 07:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -4.65%E -0.581%K -0.664%G +0.000%	1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -6.63%E -6.26%K -110.57%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-10-15 07:40
TAB🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -4.65%E -0.581%K -0.664%G +0.000%	1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -6.63%E -6.26%K -110.57%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-10-15 11:10
FanDuel🎯	7.80I 12.82%NM 12.26%EV -7.03%E -0.902%K -1.03%G +0.000%	1.09I 91.74%NM 87.74%EV -3.99%E -3.66%K -44.35%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-10-15 11:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯	7.80I 12.82%NM 12.16%EV -7.03%E -0.902%K -1.03%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 87.84%EV -4.87%E -4.51%K -60.90%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-10-15 10:20
Betsson🎯	7.75I 12.90%NM 12.23%EV -7.63%E -0.984%K -1.13%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 87.77%EV -4.87%E -4.51%K -60.90%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-10-15 11:15
NordicBet🎯	7.75I 12.90%NM 12.23%EV -7.63%E -0.984%K -1.13%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 87.77%EV -4.87%E -4.51%K -60.90%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-10-15 11:15
Winamax (FR)🎯	7.75I 12.90%NM 12.13%EV -7.63%E -0.984%K -1.13%G +0.000%	1.07I 93.46%NM 87.87%EV -5.75%E -5.38%K -82.19%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-10-15 08:50
Marathon Bet🎯	7.70I 12.99%NM 12.30%EV -8.22%E -1.07%K -1.23%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 87.70%EV -4.87%E -4.51%K -60.90%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-15 11:10
Paddy Power🎯	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -10.61%E -1.41%K -1.63%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -4.87%E -4.51%K -60.90%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-10-15 11:05
BetMGM🎯	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -10.61%E -1.41%K -1.63%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -4.87%E -4.51%K -60.90%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-10-15 04:50
Coral🎯	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -10.61%E -1.41%K -1.63%G +0.000%	1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -5.75%E -5.38%K -82.19%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-10-15 04:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -10.61%E -1.41%K -1.63%G +0.000%	1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -5.75%E -5.38%K -82.19%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-10-15 04:50
PMU (FR)🎯	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.08%EV -10.61%E -1.41%K -1.63%G +0.000%	1.03I 97.09%NM 87.92%EV -9.28%E -9.01%K -309.21%G +0.000%	10.4%	2026-10-14 20:09
theScore Bet🎯	7.20I 13.89%NM 13.15%EV -14.18%E -1.97%K -2.29%G +0.000%	1.09I 91.74%NM 86.85%EV -3.99%E -3.66%K -44.35%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-15 06:40
Unibet (FR)🎯	7.20I 13.89%NM 12.73%EV -14.18%E -1.97%K -2.29%G +0.000%	1.05I 95.24%NM 87.27%EV -7.51%E -7.16%K -150.30%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-10-15 10:50
1xBet🎯	7.03I 14.22%NM 13.53%EV -16.21%E -2.31%K -2.69%G +0.000%	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.47%EV -3.11%E -2.83%K -31.11%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-15 11:14
Bovada🎯	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -16.57%E -2.37%K -2.76%G +0.000%	1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -2.23%E -2.01%K -20.27%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-15 11:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -16.57%E -2.37%K -2.76%G +0.000%	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.11%E -2.83%K -31.11%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-10-15 08:10
Neds🎯	6.80I 14.71%NM 13.81%EV -18.95%E -2.79%K -3.27%G +0.000%	1.09I 91.74%NM 86.19%EV -3.99%E -3.66%K -44.35%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-10-15 04:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	6.80I 14.71%NM 13.81%EV -18.95%E -2.79%K -3.27%G +0.000%	1.09I 91.74%NM 86.19%EV -3.99%E -3.66%K -44.35%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-10-15 04:50
betano_uk🎯	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -22.53%E -3.47%K -4.10%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -4.87%E -4.51%K -60.90%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-10-15 07:48
Bet Victor🎯	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -22.53%E -3.47%K -4.10%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -4.87%E -4.51%K -60.90%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-10-15 07:48
Betclic (FR)🎯	6.25I 16.00%NM 14.38%EV -25.51%E -4.08%K -4.86%G +0.000%	1.05I 95.24%NM 85.62%EV -7.51%E -7.16%K -150.30%G +0.000%	11.2%	2026-10-15 11:14

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91%	1.10I 90.91%NM 90.09%	0.9%	2026-10-15 10:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91%	1.10I 90.91%NM 90.09%	0.9%	2026-10-15 10:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91%	1.10I 90.91%NM 90.09%	0.9%	2026-10-15 10:15
ProphetX◎	9.70I 10.31%NM 10.19%	1.10I 90.91%NM 89.81%	1.2%	2026-10-15 11:15
Novig◎	9.09I 11.00%NM 10.79%	1.10I 90.91%NM 89.21%	1.9%	2026-10-15 11:10
Smarkets◎	9.80I 10.20%NM 9.93%	1.08I 92.59%NM 90.07%	2.8%	2026-10-15 11:15