Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Aryna Sabalenka v Ann Li

2026-10-14 11:00 UTC — WTA Wuhan Open

Resultado del partido

48 corredores (18 en el análisis )

84%

16%

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Aryna Sabalenka (Local)

Predicción 84.38%1.19momio equitativo

EV -3.81%

Ventaja -3.34%

Kelly -27.19%

Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.14

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

81.80%84.28%84.33%85.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

1.091.121.121.1491.74%89.14%89.29%87.72%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Ann Li (Visitante)

Predicción 15.62%6.40momio equitativo

EV +6.22%

Ventaja +0.914%

Kelly +1.07%

Crecimiento +0.067%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

14.03%15.72%15.67%18.20%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

4.905.845.656.8020.41%17.12%17.70%14.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Aryna Sabalenka (Local): 84.38%; Ann Li (Visitante): 15.62%. Para Ann Li (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 6.40. 6 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 6.80, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +6.22%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (48 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

Corredor	Local	Visitante ▼	Margen	Actualizado
FanDuel🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 85.97%EV -6.34%E -5.71%K -57.62%G +0.000%	6.80I 14.71%NM 14.03%EV +6.22%E +0.914%K +1.07%G +0.067%	4.8%	2026-10-13 12:44
SportsBet🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 85.79%EV -6.34%E -5.71%K -57.62%G +0.000%	6.70I 14.93%NM 14.21%EV +4.65%E +0.695%K +0.816%G +0.038%	5.0%	2026-10-13 12:45
888sport🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.34%E -5.71%K -57.62%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +1.53%E +0.235%K +0.278%G +0.004%	5.5%	2026-10-13 12:19
William Hill🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.34%E -5.71%K -57.62%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +1.53%E +0.235%K +0.278%G +0.004%	5.5%	2026-10-13 12:19
Paddy Power🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.34%E -5.71%K -57.62%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +1.53%E +0.235%K +0.278%G +0.004%	5.5%	2026-10-13 12:05
BoyleSports🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -7.18%E -6.53%K -71.82%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +1.53%E +0.235%K +0.278%G +0.004%	6.3%	2026-10-13 13:40
Coolbet🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 85.11%EV -5.49%E -4.91%K -45.79%G +0.000%	6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV -0.032%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-10-13 12:24
Fanatics🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 85.11%EV -5.49%E -4.91%K -45.79%G +0.000%	6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV -0.032%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-10-13 13:24
DraftKings🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -4.65%E -4.12%K -35.77%G +0.000%	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -2.38%E -0.380%K -0.452%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-10-13 12:19
Betr (AU)🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -6.34%E -5.71%K -57.62%G +0.000%	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -2.38%E -0.380%K -0.452%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-10-13 12:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -5.49%E -4.91%K -45.79%G +0.000%	6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -3.16%E -0.509%K -0.607%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-10-13 12:19
NordicBet🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -5.49%E -4.91%K -45.79%G +0.000%	6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -3.16%E -0.509%K -0.607%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-10-13 12:44
Betsson🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -5.49%E -4.91%K -45.79%G +0.000%	6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -3.16%E -0.509%K -0.607%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-10-13 12:44
1xBet🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 84.36%EV -3.81%E -3.34%K -27.19%G +0.000%	6.15I 16.26%NM 15.64%EV -3.94%E -0.640%K -0.765%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-10-13 13:44
Betway🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.49%E -4.91%K -45.79%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -6.28%E -1.05%K -1.26%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-10-13 11:59
PlayUp🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.49%E -4.91%K -45.79%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -6.28%E -1.05%K -1.26%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-10-13 12:20
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.49%E -4.91%K -45.79%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -6.28%E -1.05%K -1.26%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-10-13 12:24
BetMGM🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.49%E -4.91%K -45.79%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -6.28%E -1.05%K -1.26%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-10-13 13:14
theScore Bet🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.34%E -5.71%K -57.62%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -6.28%E -1.05%K -1.26%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-10-13 12:45
Marathon Bet🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 84.16%EV -5.49%E -4.91%K -45.79%G +0.000%	5.95I 16.81%NM 15.84%EV -7.06%E -1.19%K -1.43%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-10-13 13:39
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -5.49%E -4.91%K -45.79%G +0.000%	5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -10.19%E -1.77%K -2.14%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-10-13 12:40
Coral🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 83.82%EV -6.34%E -5.71%K -57.62%G +0.000%	5.75I 17.39%NM 16.18%EV -10.19%E -1.77%K -2.14%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-10-13 13:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 83.82%EV -6.34%E -5.71%K -57.62%G +0.000%	5.75I 17.39%NM 16.18%EV -10.19%E -1.77%K -2.14%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-10-13 13:14
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 83.82%EV -7.18%E -6.53%K -71.82%G +0.000%	5.70I 17.54%NM 16.18%EV -10.97%E -1.92%K -2.33%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-10-13 12:35
Unibet🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -3.81%E -3.34%K -27.19%G +0.000%	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -12.53%E -2.24%K -2.72%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-13 11:40
Virgin Bet🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -3.81%E -3.34%K -27.19%G +0.000%	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -12.53%E -2.24%K -2.72%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-13 11:40
Grosvenor🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -3.81%E -3.34%K -27.19%G +0.000%	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -12.53%E -2.24%K -2.72%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-13 11:40
BetRivers🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -3.81%E -3.34%K -27.19%G +0.000%	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -12.53%E -2.24%K -2.72%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-13 11:40
TABtouch🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -3.81%E -3.34%K -27.19%G +0.000%	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -12.53%E -2.24%K -2.72%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-13 11:40
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -3.81%E -3.34%K -27.19%G +0.000%	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -12.53%E -2.24%K -2.72%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-13 11:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -3.81%E -3.34%K -27.19%G +0.000%	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -12.53%E -2.24%K -2.72%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-13 11:39
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -3.81%E -3.34%K -27.19%G +0.000%	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -12.53%E -2.24%K -2.72%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-13 11:40
Casumo🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -3.81%E -3.34%K -27.19%G +0.000%	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -12.53%E -2.24%K -2.72%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-13 11:39
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -3.81%E -3.34%K -27.19%G +0.000%	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -12.53%E -2.24%K -2.72%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-13 11:40
Bally Bet🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -3.81%E -3.34%K -27.19%G +0.000%	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -12.53%E -2.24%K -2.72%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-13 11:39
Svenska Spel🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -3.81%E -3.34%K -27.19%G +0.000%	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -12.53%E -2.24%K -2.72%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-13 11:39
ATG (SE)🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -3.81%E -3.34%K -27.19%G +0.000%	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -12.53%E -2.24%K -2.72%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-13 11:39
betPARX🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -3.81%E -3.34%K -27.19%G +0.000%	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -12.53%E -2.24%K -2.72%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-13 11:39
LeoVegas🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 83.46%EV -6.34%E -5.71%K -57.62%G +0.000%	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.54%EV -12.53%E -2.24%K -2.72%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-10-13 12:25
ReBet🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 83.46%EV -6.34%E -5.71%K -57.62%G +0.000%	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.54%EV -12.53%E -2.24%K -2.72%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-10-13 12:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -4.65%E -4.12%K -35.77%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -14.09%E -2.56%K -3.13%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-10-13 13:10
Neds🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -4.65%E -4.12%K -35.77%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -14.09%E -2.56%K -3.13%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-10-13 13:10
betano_uk🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -5.49%E -4.91%K -45.79%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -14.09%E -2.56%K -3.13%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-10-13 12:48
Bet Victor🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -5.49%E -4.91%K -45.79%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -14.09%E -2.56%K -3.13%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-10-13 12:50
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 82.54%EV -7.18%E -6.53%K -71.82%G +0.000%	5.20I 19.23%NM 17.46%EV -18.78%E -3.61%K -4.47%G +0.000%	10.1%	2026-10-13 12:23
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 82.54%EV -7.18%E -6.53%K -71.82%G +0.000%	5.20I 19.23%NM 17.46%EV -18.78%E -3.61%K -4.47%G +0.000%	10.1%	2026-10-13 12:44
PMU (FR)🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 82.26%EV -7.18%E -6.53%K -71.82%G +0.000%	5.10I 19.61%NM 17.74%EV -20.34%E -3.99%K -4.96%G +0.000%	10.5%	2026-10-13 11:39
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.09I 91.74%NM 81.80%EV -8.03%E -7.36%K -89.18%G +0.000%	4.90I 20.41%NM 18.20%EV -23.46%E -4.79%K -6.02%G +0.000%	12.2%	2026-10-13 12:44

Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

Corredor	Local	Visitante	Margen ▲	Actualizado
Novig◎	1.15I 86.96%NM 85.29%	6.67I 14.99%NM 14.71%	1.9%	2026-10-13 13:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%	4.4%	2026-10-13 13:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%	4.4%	2026-10-13 13:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%	4.4%	2026-10-13 13:05