Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Xiaodi You v Leolia Jeanjean

Kickoff: 2026-06-23 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

35%

65%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Xiaodi You (Local)

Prediction 34.97%2.86fair odd

EV +2.10%

Edge +0.718%

Kelly +1.09%

Growth +0.023%

assuming max odds 2.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

33.03%34.97%34.37%37.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.502.722.752.9240.00%36.73%36.36%34.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Leolia Jeanjean (Visit)

Prediction 65.03%1.54fair odd

EV -2.45%

Edge -1.63%

Kelly -4.90%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

62.50%65.03%65.63%66.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.401.441.441.5071.43%69.32%69.44%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Xiaodi You (Local): 34.97%; Leolia Jeanjean (Visit): 65.03%. For Xiaodi You (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.86. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.92, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.10%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	2.92I 34.25%NM 33.03%EV +2.10%E +0.718%K +1.09%G +0.023%	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.97%EV -6.35%E -4.41%K -14.43%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-06-23 15:20
GTbets🎯	2.82I 35.46%NM 33.96%EV -1.40%E -0.496%K -0.768%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 66.04%EV -5.70%E -3.93%K -12.67%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-06-23 15:19
PlayUp🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -2.10%E -0.749%K -1.17%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -7.65%E -5.39%K -18.22%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-06-23 15:20
Betway🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.85%E -1.40%K -2.20%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.35%E -4.41%K -14.43%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-06-23 15:20
Paddy Power🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -3.85%E -1.40%K -2.20%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.95%E -6.39%K -22.38%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-06-23 15:20
MyBookie.ag🎯	2.64I 37.88%NM 34.98%EV -7.69%E -2.91%K -4.69%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 65.02%EV -7.65%E -5.39%K -18.22%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-06-23 15:20
NordicBet🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -9.09%E -3.50%K -5.68%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -4.40%E -2.99%K -9.36%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-06-23 15:20
BoyleSports🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -12.59%E -5.03%K -8.39%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -2.45%E -1.63%K -4.90%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-06-23 15:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52%	1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48%	0.8%	2026-06-23 15:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	3.00I 33.33%NM 32.89%	1.47I 68.03%NM 67.11%	1.4%	2026-06-23 15:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	3.00I 33.33%NM 32.89%	1.47I 68.03%NM 67.11%	1.4%	2026-06-23 15:20
Smarkets◎	3.00I 33.33%NM 32.43%	1.44I 69.44%NM 67.57%	2.8%	2026-06-23 15:20