Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Teodora Kostovic v Lin Zhu

Kickoff: 2026-06-25 12:53 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Teodora Kostovic (Local)

Prediction 36.10%2.77fair odd
EV +0.732%
Edge +0.262%
Kelly +0.409%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 2.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.09%36.07%36.12%38.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.482.612.602.7940.32%38.35%38.46%35.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lin Zhu (Visit)

Prediction 63.90%1.57fair odd
EV -1.60%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -2.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.69%63.93%63.88%66.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.461.461.5472.46%68.49%68.49%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Teodora Kostovic (Local): 36.10%; Lin Zhu (Visit): 63.90%. For Teodora Kostovic (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.77. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.79, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.732%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯2.79I 35.84%NM 33.09%EV +0.732%E +0.262%K +0.409%G +0.003%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.91%EV -11.82%E -8.57%K -31.12%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-25 12:50
Fliff🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.82%EV -2.52%E -0.932%K -1.48%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.18%EV -11.82%E -8.57%K -31.12%G +0.000%9.5%2026-06-25 12:50
Pinnacle🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 36.12%EV -3.60%E -1.35%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.88%EV -3.52%E -2.33%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.7%2026-06-25 12:50
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -5.41%E -2.06%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.99%E -5.55%K -18.16%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-25 12:29
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -5.41%E -2.06%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.99%E -5.55%K -18.16%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-25 12:49
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.13%E -2.36%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.16%E -2.77%K -8.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-25 12:10
ReBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.13%E -2.36%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.16%E -2.77%K -8.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-25 12:30
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.13%E -2.36%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.43%E -3.67%K -11.32%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-25 12:30
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.13%E -2.36%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.35%E -5.07%K -16.34%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-25 12:50
MyBookie.ag🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 36.93%EV -9.38%E -3.74%K -6.21%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.07%EV -6.07%E -4.13%K -12.92%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-25 12:38
NetBet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.39%EV -9.74%E -3.90%K -6.49%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 63.61%EV -8.63%E -6.03%K -20.07%G +0.000%9.9%2026-06-25 12:09
GTbets🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -10.46%E -4.22%K -7.07%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -1.60%E -1.04%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-25 12:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48%0.7%2026-06-25 12:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.33%1.53I 65.36%NM 64.67%1.1%2026-06-25 12:50
ProphetX2.88I 34.72%NM 34.10%1.49I 67.11%NM 65.90%1.8%2026-06-25 12:29
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.10I 32.26%NM 31.57%1.43I 69.93%NM 68.43%2.2%2026-06-25 12:50
Smarkets2.96I 33.78%NM 31.64%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.36%6.8%2026-06-25 12:50