Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Robin Montgomery v Elvina Kalieva

Kickoff: 2026-06-24 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Robin Montgomery (Local)

Prediction 91.32%1.09fair odd
EV -2.28%
Edge -2.13%
Kelly -32.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
89.56%91.28%91.32%91.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.041.041.0799.01%96.27%96.62%93.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Elvina Kalieva (Visit)

Prediction 8.68%11.53fair odd
EV +6.28%
Edge +0.512%
Kelly +0.558%
Growth +0.035%

assuming max odds 12.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.03%8.72%8.68%10.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.7510.5910.7512.2511.43%9.44%9.30%8.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Robin Montgomery (Local): 91.32%; Elvina Kalieva (Visit): 8.68%. For Elvina Kalieva (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.53. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.28%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 91.97%EV -2.28%E -2.13%K -32.61%G +0.000%12.25I 8.16%NM 8.03%EV +6.28%E +0.512%K +0.558%G +0.035%1.6%2026-06-24 17:50
MyBookie.ag🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 91.94%EV -5.94%E -5.76%K -197.86%G +0.000%11.75I 8.51%NM 8.06%EV +1.94%E +0.165%K +0.180%G +0.003%5.6%2026-06-24 17:49
BoyleSports🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -3.20%E -3.02%K -53.27%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV -4.57%E -0.415%K -0.457%G +0.000%3.4%2026-06-24 17:49
theScore Bet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.94%E -5.76%K -197.86%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -4.57%E -0.415%K -0.457%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-24 17:50
Fliff🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 91.23%EV -7.76%E -7.69%K -776.24%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.77%EV -8.91%E -0.848%K -0.937%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-24 17:49
Betway🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.11%E -3.91%K -82.19%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -13.24%E -1.32%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-24 17:50
Paddy Power🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -5.02%E -4.83%K -125.57%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -17.58%E -1.85%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-24 17:49
NordicBet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 89.56%EV -6.85%E -6.71%K -342.46%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.44%EV -24.09%E -2.75%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.5%2026-06-24 17:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.05I 95.24%NM 94.89%19.50I 5.13%NM 5.11%0.4%2026-06-24 17:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.05I 95.24%NM 94.34%17.50I 5.71%NM 5.66%1.0%2026-06-24 17:50
Smarkets1.04I 96.15%NM 94.81%19.01I 5.26%NM 5.19%1.4%2026-06-24 17:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.05I 95.24%NM 93.46%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.54%1.9%2026-06-24 17:50