Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rebeka Masarova v Jil Teichmann

Kickoff: 2026-06-23 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rebeka Masarova (Local)

Prediction 73.64%1.36fair odd
EV +0.145%
Edge +0.107%
Kelly +0.404%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.11%73.66%73.46%76.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.281.281.3680.00%77.89%78.13%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jil Teichmann (Visit)

Prediction 26.36%3.79fair odd
EV +7.04%
Edge +1.73%
Kelly +2.30%
Growth +0.162%

assuming max odds 4.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.68%26.34%26.54%28.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.533.504.0631.25%28.35%28.57%24.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rebeka Masarova (Local): 73.64%; Jil Teichmann (Visit): 26.36%. For Jil Teichmann (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.79. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.06, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.04%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.32%EV -7.22%E -5.73%K -27.76%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.68%EV +7.04%E +1.73%K +2.30%G +0.162%4.0%2026-06-23 12:30
Betway🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -5.01%E -3.88%K -17.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV +0.182%E +0.048%K +0.065%G +0.000%3.8%2026-06-23 12:30
ReBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -5.01%E -3.88%K -17.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -3.77%E -1.03%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-23 12:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.71%EV -6.48%E -5.10%K -24.01%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.29%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-23 12:30
NordicBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.33%EV -5.75%E -4.49%K -20.52%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.67%EV -7.20%E -2.05%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-23 12:30
theScore Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.75%E -4.49%K -20.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -7.73%E -2.21%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-23 12:30
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -7.95%E -6.36%K -31.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -7.73%E -2.21%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-23 12:30
GTbets🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 71.90%EV +0.145%E +0.107%K +0.404%G +0.001%3.48I 28.74%NM 28.10%EV -8.25%E -2.37%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.3%2026-06-23 03:29
Unibet (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.09%EV -6.48%E -5.10%K -24.01%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.91%EV -9.05%E -2.62%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-23 12:30
PlayUp🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.27%E -3.29%K -14.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -10.36%E -3.05%K -4.32%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-23 03:29
NetBet (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.96%EV -7.22%E -5.73%K -27.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -10.36%E -3.05%K -4.32%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-23 10:19
MyBookie.ag🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.29%EV -5.75%E -4.49%K -20.52%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.71%EV -11.95%E -3.58%K -5.10%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-23 03:28
BoyleSports🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -4.27%E -3.29%K -14.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -15.64%E -4.89%K -7.11%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-23 12:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54%0.9%2026-06-23 12:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%1.0%2026-06-23 12:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%1.0%2026-06-23 12:30
Smarkets1.25I 80.00%NM 77.48%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.52%3.3%2026-06-23 12:30