Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Priscilla Hon v Nao Hibino

Kickoff: 2026-06-23 12:50 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Priscilla Hon (Local)

Prediction 53.67%1.86fair odd
EV -3.40%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -4.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.48%53.44%53.53%55.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.731.721.8059.88%57.65%58.14%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nao Hibino (Visit)

Prediction 46.33%2.16fair odd
EV -0.382%
Edge -0.178%
Kelly -0.332%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.30%46.56%46.47%48.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.052.052.1552.36%48.76%48.78%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Priscilla Hon (Local): 53.67%; Nao Hibino (Visit): 46.33%. For Nao Hibino (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.16. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.15, with an expected value of -0.382%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.49%EV -3.40%E -1.89%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.51%EV -4.09%E -1.98%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-23 12:30
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.40%E -1.89%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.02%E -2.45%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-23 12:30
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -3.40%E -1.89%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -11.50%E -6.02%K -12.64%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-23 06:19
PlayUp🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.01%E -2.83%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.02%E -2.45%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-23 10:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -6.08%E -3.48%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -6.41%E -3.17%K -6.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-23 12:30
ReBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -6.62%E -3.81%K -8.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -2.70%E -1.29%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-23 10:20
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.62%EV -7.69%E -4.47%K -10.69%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.38%EV -4.09%E -1.98%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-23 06:19
GTbets🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -8.23%E -4.81%K -11.59%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -0.382%E -0.178%K -0.332%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-23 03:29
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -8.23%E -4.81%K -11.59%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -5.02%E -2.45%K -4.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-23 06:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -8.77%E -5.16%K -12.53%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -5.02%E -2.45%K -4.78%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-23 10:20
MyBookie.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.55%EV -8.77%E -5.16%K -12.53%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.45%EV -5.48%E -2.69%K -5.27%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-23 06:28
NetBet (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.35%EV -9.84%E -5.86%K -14.47%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.65%EV -7.33%E -3.67%K -7.33%G +0.000%9.5%2026-06-23 12:30
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -10.38%E -6.21%K -15.49%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -2.70%E -1.29%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-23 03:28
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.81I 55.25%NM 54.64%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.36%1.1%2026-06-23 12:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.81I 55.25%NM 54.64%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.36%1.1%2026-06-23 12:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.81I 55.25%NM 54.64%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.36%1.1%2026-06-23 12:30
Smarkets1.80I 55.56%NM 54.31%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.69%2.3%2026-06-23 12:30