Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Polina Kudermetova v Jessika Ponchet

Kickoff: 2026-06-23 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

69%

31%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Polina Kudermetova (Local)

Prediction 68.59%1.46fair odd

EV -3.29%

Edge -2.34%

Kelly -8.04%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

66.27%68.29%68.68%69.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.331.371.371.4175.19%72.86%73.26%70.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jessika Ponchet (Visit)

Prediction 31.41%3.18fair odd

EV -2.30%

Edge -0.740%

Kelly -1.09%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

30.72%31.71%31.32%33.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.752.973.003.1136.36%33.70%33.33%32.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Polina Kudermetova (Local): 68.59%; Jessika Ponchet (Visit): 31.41%. For Jessika Ponchet (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.18. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.11, with an expected value of -2.30%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
GTbets🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -3.29%E -2.34%K -8.04%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -4.19%E -1.37%K -2.04%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-06-23 03:29
Betway🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.98%E -2.84%K -9.95%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.76%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-06-23 05:09
PlayUp🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.98%E -2.84%K -9.95%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.90%E -3.07%K -4.68%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-06-23 05:20
BoyleSports🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -3.98%E -2.84%K -9.95%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -13.61%E -4.95%K -7.78%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-06-23 12:30
Pinnacle🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 69.11%EV -4.67%E -3.36%K -11.97%G +0.000%	3.11I 32.15%NM 30.89%EV -2.30%E -0.740%K -1.09%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-06-23 12:30
ReBet🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -6.04%E -4.41%K -16.32%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -5.76%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-06-23 12:29
Marathon Bet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.72%E -4.94%K -18.68%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.76%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-06-23 12:30
theScore Bet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.72%E -4.94%K -18.68%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.76%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-06-23 12:30
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.30%EV -6.72%E -4.94%K -18.68%G +0.000%	2.93I 34.13%NM 31.70%EV -7.95%E -2.71%K -4.12%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-06-23 12:29
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -7.41%E -5.49%K -21.17%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -7.33%E -2.48%K -3.76%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-06-23 12:30
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 68.54%EV -8.10%E -6.04%K -23.81%G +0.000%	2.92I 34.25%NM 31.46%EV -8.27%E -2.83%K -4.31%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-06-23 12:30
Paddy Power🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.78%E -6.60%K -26.61%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -5.76%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-06-23 12:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.41I 70.92%NM 69.74%	3.25I 30.77%NM 30.26%	1.7%	2026-06-23 07:29
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.41I 70.92%NM 69.74%	3.25I 30.77%NM 30.26%	1.7%	2026-06-23 12:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.41I 70.92%NM 69.74%	3.25I 30.77%NM 30.26%	1.7%	2026-06-23 12:30
Smarkets◎	1.40I 71.43%NM 69.89%	3.25I 30.77%NM 30.11%	2.2%	2026-06-23 12:30