Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Noma Noha Akugue v Lisa Pigato

Kickoff: 2026-06-23 10:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Noma Noha Akugue (Local)

Prediction 54.37%1.84fair odd
EV -2.14%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -2.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.48%54.06%54.38%56.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.721.721.8060.61%58.06%58.14%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lisa Pigato (Visit)

Prediction 45.63%2.19fair odd
EV -0.980%
Edge -0.452%
Kelly -0.838%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.86%45.94%45.62%48.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.062.062.1752.36%48.47%48.54%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Noma Noha Akugue (Local): 54.37%; Lisa Pigato (Visit): 45.63%. For Lisa Pigato (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.19. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.17, with an expected value of -0.980%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -2.14%E -1.19%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -12.84%E -6.72%K -14.11%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-23 03:29
Pinnacle🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.24%EV -3.22%E -1.81%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.76%EV -3.72%E -1.76%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.6%2026-06-23 06:49
GTbets🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 55.22%EV -4.31%E -2.45%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.78%EV -0.980%E -0.452%K -0.838%G +0.000%2.9%2026-06-23 03:29
Betway🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.85%E -2.77%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.17%E -1.99%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-23 03:29
ReBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV -5.40%E -3.10%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.79%EV -6.00%E -2.91%K -5.66%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-23 07:09
NordicBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -5.94%E -3.43%K -8.14%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.46%E -3.15%K -6.15%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-23 03:29
Unibet (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -6.49%E -3.77%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -6.46%E -3.15%K -6.15%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-23 07:20
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -7.03%E -4.11%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -6.46%E -3.15%K -6.15%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-23 03:30
MyBookie.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.16%EV -7.03%E -4.11%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.84%EV -7.82%E -3.87%K -7.67%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-23 03:28
Marathon Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -8.12%E -4.80%K -11.76%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -4.17%E -1.99%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-23 07:28
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -8.66%E -5.16%K -12.74%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -1.89%E -0.880%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-23 03:29
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -9.20%E -5.51%K -13.74%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.17%E -1.99%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-23 03:28
NetBet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.17%EV -10.29%E -6.24%K -15.83%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.83%EV -11.02%E -5.65%K -11.60%G +0.000%11.9%2026-06-23 06:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.84I 54.35%NM 54.00%2.16I 46.30%NM 46.00%0.6%2026-06-23 07:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.84I 54.35%NM 53.77%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.23%1.1%2026-06-23 07:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.84I 54.35%NM 53.77%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.23%1.1%2026-06-23 07:20
Smarkets1.79I 55.87%NM 53.98%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.02%3.5%2026-06-23 07:40