Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Maria Timofeeva v Whitney Osuigwe

Kickoff: 2026-06-23 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

67%

33%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Maria Timofeeva (Local)

Prediction 67.15%1.49fair odd

EV -2.64%

Edge -1.82%

Kelly -5.86%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

64.53%66.88%67.10%68.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.361.401.401.4573.53%71.30%71.43%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Whitney Osuigwe (Visit)

Prediction 32.85%3.04fair odd

EV -1.44%

Edge -0.481%

Kelly -0.721%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

31.82%33.12%32.90%35.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.622.822.803.0038.17%35.45%35.65%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Maria Timofeeva (Local): 67.15%; Whitney Osuigwe (Visit): 32.85%. For Whitney Osuigwe (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.04. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.00, with an expected value of -1.44%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
PlayUp🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -2.64%E -1.82%K -5.86%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -9.65%E -3.51%K -5.52%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-06-23 15:20
BoyleSports🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -3.31%E -2.30%K -7.52%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -13.93%E -5.32%K -8.60%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-06-23 03:29
Pinnacle🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.73%EV -4.65%E -3.28%K -11.07%G +0.000%	2.98I 33.56%NM 32.27%EV -2.10%E -0.704%K -1.06%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-06-23 12:30
GTbets🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.06%EV -5.32%E -3.77%K -12.98%G +0.000%	2.87I 34.84%NM 32.94%EV -5.71%E -1.99%K -3.05%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-06-23 03:29
NordicBet🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 66.59%EV -5.32%E -3.77%K -12.98%G +0.000%	2.81I 35.59%NM 33.41%EV -7.68%E -2.73%K -4.25%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-06-23 15:20
Betway🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.99%E -4.28%K -14.98%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -1.44%E -0.481%K -0.721%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-06-23 03:29
theScore Bet🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.99%E -4.28%K -14.98%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.01%E -2.86%K -4.45%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-06-23 03:30
Marathon Bet🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 67.45%EV -6.67%E -4.80%K -17.09%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.55%EV -5.38%E -1.87%K -2.86%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-06-23 15:20
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 66.51%EV -6.67%E -4.80%K -17.09%G +0.000%	2.76I 36.23%NM 33.49%EV -9.33%E -3.38%K -5.30%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-06-23 12:29
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 66.43%EV -6.67%E -4.80%K -17.09%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -9.65%E -3.51%K -5.52%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-06-23 15:20
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 66.75%EV -8.01%E -5.85%K -21.64%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -9.65%E -3.51%K -5.52%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-06-23 10:19
Paddy Power🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -8.68%E -6.38%K -24.11%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -5.38%E -1.87%K -2.86%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-06-23 03:28

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.44I 69.44%NM 68.63%	3.15I 31.75%NM 31.37%	1.2%	2026-06-23 15:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.44I 69.44%NM 68.63%	3.15I 31.75%NM 31.37%	1.2%	2026-06-23 15:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.44I 69.44%NM 68.63%	3.15I 31.75%NM 31.37%	1.2%	2026-06-23 15:20
Smarkets◎	1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%	3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%	3.2%	2026-06-23 15:20