Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Maria Timofeeva v Heather Watson

Kickoff: 2026-06-25 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

52%

48%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Maria Timofeeva (Local)

Prediction 52.25%1.91fair odd

EV +4.51%

Edge +2.25%

Kelly +4.51%

Growth +0.203%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

46.67%51.99%52.12%56.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.621.781.752.0061.73%56.18%57.31%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Heather Watson (Visit)

Prediction 47.75%2.09fair odd

EV +5.04%

Edge +2.29%

Kelly +4.20%

Growth +0.212%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

43.12%48.01%47.88%53.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.752.002.052.2057.14%50.11%48.78%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Maria Timofeeva (Local): 52.25%; Heather Watson (Visit): 47.75%. For Heather Watson (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.09. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.04%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -10.65%E -6.23%K -14.99%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV +5.04%E +2.29%K +4.20%G +0.212%	3.9%	2026-06-25 13:20
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.63I 61.35%NM 56.88%EV -14.83%E -9.10%K -23.53%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV +2.65%E +1.23%K +2.31%G +0.061%	7.9%	2026-06-25 13:09
GTbets🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.87%EV -11.69%E -6.92%K -16.94%G +0.000%	2.14I 46.73%NM 44.13%EV +2.18%E +1.02%K +1.91%G +0.042%	5.9%	2026-06-25 13:09
ReBet🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%EV -9.60%E -5.55%K -13.15%G +0.000%	2.11I 47.39%NM 45.05%EV +0.745%E +0.353%K +0.671%G +0.005%	5.2%	2026-06-25 13:10
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -8.56%E -4.89%K -11.41%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV +0.267%E +0.127%K +0.243%G +0.001%	4.8%	2026-06-25 13:28
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 56.10%EV -15.35%E -9.47%K -24.76%G +0.000%	2.07I 48.31%NM 43.90%EV -1.17%E -0.563%K -1.09%G +0.000%	10.0%	2026-06-25 13:10
PlayUp🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -7.51%E -4.24%K -9.75%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -2.12%E -1.03%K -2.02%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-06-25 13:25
Marathon Bet🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -9.60%E -5.55%K -13.15%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -2.12%E -1.03%K -2.02%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-06-25 13:27
Paddy Power🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.94%E -3.30%K -7.43%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.80%E -4.61%K -9.68%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-06-25 13:30
Fliff🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 52.33%EV -9.08%E -5.22%K -12.27%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 47.67%EV -8.80%E -4.61%K -9.68%G +0.000%	9.8%	2026-06-25 13:29
theScore Bet🎯	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -2.29%E -1.22%K -2.63%G +0.000%	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -10.71%E -5.73%K -12.32%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-06-25 13:29
Betway🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV +1.89%E +0.972%K +1.99%G +0.038%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -11.67%E -6.31%K -13.73%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-06-25 13:30
NordicBet🎯	1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%EV +0.850%E +0.440%K +0.913%G +0.008%	1.78I 56.18%NM 52.02%EV -15.01%E -8.43%K -19.25%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-06-25 13:30
BoyleSports🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV +4.51%E +2.25%K +4.51%G +0.203%	1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -16.44%E -9.40%K -21.93%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-06-25 13:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.87I 53.48%NM 53.37%	2.14I 46.73%NM 46.63%	0.2%	2026-06-25 13:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.94I 51.55%NM 51.26%	2.04I 49.02%NM 48.74%	0.6%	2026-06-25 13:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%	2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%	1.0%	2026-06-25 13:30
ProphetX◎	1.72I 58.14%NM 57.43%	2.32I 43.10%NM 42.57%	1.2%	2026-06-25 13:10
Smarkets◎	2.00I 50.00%NM 48.59%	1.89I 52.91%NM 51.41%	2.9%	2026-06-25 13:30