Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Maria Lourdes Carle v Lucie Havlickova

Kickoff: 2026-06-23 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Maria Lourdes Carle (Local)

Prediction 41.81%2.39fair odd
EV -1.74%
Edge -0.739%
Kelly -1.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.20%41.68%41.77%42.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.272.292.3545.45%43.96%43.67%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lucie Havlickova (Visit)

Prediction 58.19%1.72fair odd
EV -3.41%
Edge -2.05%
Kelly -5.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.59%58.32%58.23%59.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.601.581.6663.69%62.68%63.29%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Maria Lourdes Carle (Local): 41.81%; Lucie Havlickova (Visit): 58.19%. For Maria Lourdes Carle (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.39. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.35, with an expected value of -1.74%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -1.74%E -0.739%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -8.07%E -5.11%K -13.91%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-23 03:29
GTbets🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%EV -2.16%E -0.921%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%EV -6.90%E -4.31%K -11.50%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-23 03:29
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.83%E -1.66%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.99%E -2.42%K -6.14%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-23 15:20
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -3.83%E -1.66%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -8.65%E -5.51%K -15.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-23 03:30
Pinnacle🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 42.03%EV -4.25%E -1.85%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.97%EV -3.41%E -2.05%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-23 12:30
NordicBet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.98%EV -4.25%E -1.85%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.02%EV -7.48%E -4.71%K -12.69%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-23 15:20
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -5.92%E -2.63%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.65%E -5.51%K -15.17%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-23 03:28
MyBookie.ag🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -5.92%E -2.63%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.65%E -5.51%K -15.17%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-23 03:28
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -5.92%E -2.63%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.65%E -5.51%K -15.17%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-23 10:20
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.01%E -3.64%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.74%E -3.54%K -9.26%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-23 15:20
NetBet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -8.01%E -3.64%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -8.65%E -5.51%K -15.17%G +0.000%9.1%2026-06-23 10:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78%1.68I 59.52%NM 59.22%0.5%2026-06-23 15:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78%1.68I 59.52%NM 59.22%0.5%2026-06-23 15:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78%1.68I 59.52%NM 59.22%0.5%2026-06-23 15:20
Smarkets2.40I 41.67%NM 40.89%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.11%1.9%2026-06-23 15:20