Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mai Hontama v Akasha Urhobo

Kickoff: 2026-06-23 13:20 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

37%

63%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mai Hontama (Local)

Prediction 37.31%2.68fair odd

EV -2.25%

Edge -0.860%

Kelly -1.39%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

35.47%37.49%37.18%39.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.382.532.552.6242.02%39.55%39.22%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Akasha Urhobo (Visit)

Prediction 62.69%1.60fair odd

EV -2.20%

Edge -1.41%

Kelly -3.93%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

60.87%62.51%62.82%64.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.441.491.481.5669.44%67.11%67.34%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mai Hontama (Local): 37.31%; Akasha Urhobo (Visit): 62.69%. For Akasha Urhobo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.60. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.56, with an expected value of -2.20%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Paddy Power🎯	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -2.25%E -0.860%K -1.39%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -9.72%E -6.75%K -22.10%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-06-23 03:28
Betway🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.00%E -1.15%K -1.87%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.96%E -3.97%K -11.92%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-06-23 03:29
GTbets🎯	2.56I 39.06%NM 37.25%EV -4.49%E -1.75%K -2.88%G +0.000%	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.75%EV -4.71%E -3.10%K -9.05%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-06-23 03:29
PlayUp🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.86%E -1.91%K -3.14%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.96%E -3.97%K -11.92%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-06-23 03:29
ReBet🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -4.86%E -1.91%K -3.14%G +0.000%	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -6.59%E -4.42%K -13.45%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-06-23 10:20
Marathon Bet🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -4.86%E -1.91%K -3.14%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -7.22%E -4.88%K -15.03%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-06-23 04:39
Unibet (FR)🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 36.41%EV -4.86%E -1.91%K -3.14%G +0.000%	1.46I 68.49%NM 63.59%EV -8.47%E -5.80%K -18.41%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-06-23 10:20
Pinnacle🎯	2.53I 39.53%NM 38.14%EV -5.61%E -2.22%K -3.67%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 61.86%EV -2.20%E -1.41%K -3.93%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-06-23 12:30
theScore Bet🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -6.73%E -2.69%K -4.49%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.22%E -4.88%K -15.03%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-06-23 07:30
MyBookie.ag🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -6.73%E -2.69%K -4.49%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -7.84%E -5.34%K -16.69%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-06-23 07:29
NetBet (FR)🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -8.60%E -3.51%K -5.93%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 62.82%EV -9.10%E -6.27%K -20.21%G +0.000%	9.8%	2026-06-23 10:19
BoyleSports🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -11.21%E -4.71%K -8.12%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -4.08%E -2.67%K -7.70%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-06-23 07:29

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	2.66I 37.59%NM 37.12%	1.57I 63.69%NM 62.88%	1.3%	2026-06-23 12:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	2.66I 37.59%NM 37.12%	1.57I 63.69%NM 62.88%	1.3%	2026-06-23 12:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	2.66I 37.59%NM 37.12%	1.57I 63.69%NM 62.88%	1.3%	2026-06-23 12:30
Smarkets◎	2.64I 37.88%NM 36.99%	1.55I 64.52%NM 63.01%	2.4%	2026-06-23 12:30