Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ma Yexin v Erika Andreeva

Kickoff: 2026-06-23 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ma Yexin (Local)

Prediction 36.83%2.72fair odd
EV -1.30%
Edge -0.487%
Kelly -0.776%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.84%37.01%36.71%38.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.542.502.6842.02%39.30%40.00%37.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Erika Andreeva (Visit)

Prediction 63.17%1.58fair odd
EV -5.24%
Edge -3.49%
Kelly -10.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.34%62.99%63.29%64.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.491.501.5068.97%67.26%66.67%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ma Yexin (Local): 36.83%; Erika Andreeva (Visit): 63.17%. For Ma Yexin (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.72. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.68, with an expected value of -1.30%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.89%EV -1.30%E -0.487%K -0.776%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.11%EV -5.24%E -3.49%K -10.48%G +0.000%4.0%2026-06-23 10:20
PlayUp🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -2.41%E -0.909%K -1.46%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -6.50%E -4.39%K -13.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-23 03:29
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.25%E -1.63%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.24%E -3.49%K -10.48%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-23 03:29
ReBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.25%E -1.63%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.24%E -3.49%K -10.48%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-23 10:20
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.93%E -3.17%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.24%E -3.49%K -10.48%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-23 03:28
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -7.93%E -3.17%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.50%E -4.39%K -13.55%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-23 03:30
NetBet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -7.93%E -3.17%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -8.40%E -5.79%K -18.66%G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-23 10:19
MyBookie.ag🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 37.12%EV -8.30%E -3.33%K -5.57%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 62.88%EV -7.14%E -4.85%K -15.18%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-23 03:28
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -12.35%E -5.19%K -8.95%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.34%EV -5.24%E -3.49%K -10.48%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-23 03:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.30%1.55I 64.52%NM 63.70%1.3%2026-06-23 10:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.30%1.55I 64.52%NM 63.70%1.3%2026-06-23 10:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.30%1.55I 64.52%NM 63.70%1.3%2026-06-23 10:20
Smarkets2.66I 37.59%NM 36.52%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.48%3.0%2026-06-23 10:20