Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lola Radivojevic v Marina Bassols Ribera

Kickoff: 2026-06-23 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lola Radivojevic (Local)

Prediction 48.09%2.08fair odd
EV +8.68%
Edge +3.84%
Kelly +6.89%
Growth +0.598%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.49%48.03%47.67%53.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.971.962.2657.14%50.72%51.15%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Marina Bassols Ribera (Visit)

Prediction 51.91%1.93fair odd
EV +3.82%
Edge +1.91%
Kelly +3.82%
Growth +0.146%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.67%51.97%52.33%57.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.801.802.0059.88%55.43%55.56%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lola Radivojevic (Local): 48.09%; Marina Bassols Ribera (Visit): 51.91%. For Lola Radivojevic (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.08. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.26, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.68%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.49%EV +8.68%E +3.84%K +6.89%G +0.598%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.51%EV -13.31%E -7.97%K -19.86%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-23 15:20
MyBookie.ag🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV +3.39%E +1.58%K +2.95%G +0.100%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -11.75%E -6.91%K -16.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-23 15:20
NordicBet🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 45.97%EV -3.34%E -1.66%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.03%EV -11.23%E -6.57%K -15.82%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-23 15:20
PlayUp🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.82%E -1.91%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.56%E -3.64%K -8.20%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-23 03:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.34%EV -4.79%E -2.42%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%EV -7.60%E -4.27%K -9.74%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-23 03:30
ReBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.01%EV -5.75%E -2.93%K -5.99%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.99%EV -6.04%E -3.34%K -7.46%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-23 12:29
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.23%E -3.19%K -6.56%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.56%E -3.64%K -8.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-23 03:30
NetBet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -6.23%E -3.19%K -6.56%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -10.19%E -5.89%K -13.96%G +0.000%9.1%2026-06-23 12:30
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -8.15%E -4.27%K -8.96%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -0.848%E -0.444%K -0.932%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-23 15:20
GTbets🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -8.15%E -4.27%K -8.96%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -0.848%E -0.444%K -0.932%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-23 03:29
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -12.00%E -6.56%K -14.46%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -5.00%E -2.73%K -6.02%G +0.000%9.3%2026-06-23 15:20
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -15.85%E -9.06%K -21.13%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV +3.82%E +1.91%K +3.82%G +0.146%7.1%2026-06-23 15:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.64I 37.88%NM 37.44%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.56%1.2%2026-06-23 15:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.09%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.91%1.9%2026-06-23 15:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.96I 51.02%NM 50.00%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.00%2.0%2026-06-23 15:20
Smarkets2.14I 46.73%NM 45.69%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.31%2.3%2026-06-23 15:20