L’École des cotes

Liudmila Samsonova v Marie Bouzkova

Coup d’envoi : 2026-07-04 10:16 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

65 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Liudmila Samsonova (Local)

Prévision 40.43%2.47cote équitable
EV +3.11%
Avantage +1.22%
Kelly +2.00%
Croissance +0.062%

avec la cote maximale 2.55

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
37.84%40.53%40.51%45.33%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.052.342.352.5548.78%42.72%42.55%39.22%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Marie Bouzkova (Visiteur)

Prévision 59.57%1.68cote équitable
EV +1.26%
Avantage +0.742%
Kelly +1.80%
Croissance +0.023%

avec la cote maximale 1.70

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
54.67%59.47%59.49%62.16%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.471.571.571.7068.03%63.52%63.69%58.82%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (65 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle2.55I 39.22%NM 38.26%EV +3.11%E +1.22%K +2.00%G +0.062%1.58I 63.29%NM 61.74%EV -5.89%E -3.73%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-04 10:10
Fanatics2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV +1.09%E +0.434%K +0.724%G +0.008%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -7.08%E -4.54%K -12.64%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-04 10:15
Hard Rock Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +1.09%E +0.434%K +0.724%G +0.008%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -8.86%E -5.79%K -16.72%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-04 10:15
Casumo2.48I 40.32%NM 37.84%EV +0.277%E +0.112%K +0.187%G +0.001%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.16%EV -10.06%E -6.66%K -19.72%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-04 10:15
Unibet (SE)2.48I 40.32%NM 37.84%EV +0.277%E +0.112%K +0.187%G +0.001%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.16%EV -10.06%E -6.66%K -19.72%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-04 10:15
Unibet (NL)2.48I 40.32%NM 37.84%EV +0.277%E +0.112%K +0.187%G +0.001%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.16%EV -10.06%E -6.66%K -19.72%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-04 10:15
Unibet2.48I 40.32%NM 37.84%EV +0.277%E +0.112%K +0.187%G +0.001%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.16%EV -10.06%E -6.66%K -19.72%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-04 10:15
betPARX2.48I 40.32%NM 37.84%EV +0.277%E +0.112%K +0.187%G +0.001%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.16%EV -10.06%E -6.66%K -19.72%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-04 10:15
Unibet (UK)2.47I 40.49%NM 38.56%EV -0.128%E -0.052%K -0.087%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.44%EV -7.67%E -4.95%K -13.95%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-04 10:15
DraftKings2.46I 40.65%NM 38.35%EV -0.532%E -0.216%K -0.364%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.65%EV -8.86%E -5.79%K -16.72%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-04 10:15
Grosvenor2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -0.936%E -0.382%K -0.646%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -10.65%E -7.10%K -21.30%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-04 10:15
Svenska Spel2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -1.75%E -0.718%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%EV -8.27%E -5.37%K -15.31%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-04 10:15
ATG (SE)2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -1.75%E -0.718%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%EV -8.27%E -5.37%K -15.31%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-04 10:15
PMU (FR)2.43I 41.15%NM 38.17%EV -1.75%E -0.718%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.83%EV -10.65%E -7.10%K -21.30%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-04 10:15
Virgin Bet2.43I 41.15%NM 38.17%EV -1.75%E -0.718%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.83%EV -10.65%E -7.10%K -21.30%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-04 10:15
BetOnline.ag2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -2.96%E -1.23%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -3.50%E -2.16%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-04 10:10
Bovada2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.96%E -1.23%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.29%E -3.33%K -8.97%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-04 10:15
LeoVegas2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.96%E -1.23%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.48%E -4.13%K -11.37%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-04 10:15
Unibet (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.96%E -1.23%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.48%E -4.13%K -11.37%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-04 10:10
BetRivers2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.96%E -1.23%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.08%E -4.54%K -12.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-04 10:04
TAB2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -2.96%E -1.23%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -7.67%E -4.95%K -13.95%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-04 10:15
theScore Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -2.96%E -1.23%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -8.27%E -5.37%K -15.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-04 10:15
TABtouch2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -2.96%E -1.23%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -8.86%E -5.79%K -16.72%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-04 10:15
BoyleSports2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -3.77%E -1.58%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -3.50%E -2.16%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-04 10:15
betfred_uk2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.77%E -1.58%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.48%E -4.13%K -11.37%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-04 10:08
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.77%E -1.58%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.48%E -4.13%K -11.37%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-04 10:15
888sport2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -3.77%E -1.58%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -8.86%E -5.79%K -16.72%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-04 10:15
888sport (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -3.77%E -1.58%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -8.86%E -5.79%K -16.72%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-04 10:15
LiveScore Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 38.97%EV -3.77%E -1.58%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.03%EV -9.46%E -6.22%K -18.19%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-04 10:15
NordicBet2.38I 42.02%NM 38.82%EV -3.77%E -1.58%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.18%EV -10.06%E -6.66%K -19.72%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-04 10:15
Bally Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 38.82%EV -3.77%E -1.58%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.18%EV -10.06%E -6.66%K -19.72%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-04 10:15
LeoVegas (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 38.18%EV -3.77%E -1.58%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 61.82%EV -12.44%E -8.46%K -26.46%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-04 10:15
Dabble (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.98%E -2.12%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.69%E -2.93%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-04 10:12
Neds2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.98%E -2.12%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.69%E -2.93%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-04 10:09
Ladbrokes (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.98%E -2.12%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.69%E -2.93%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-04 10:09
Betr (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -4.98%E -2.12%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -5.89%E -3.73%K -10.15%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-04 10:08
PlayUp2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -4.98%E -2.12%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -5.89%E -3.73%K -10.15%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-04 10:10
NetBet (FR)2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -6.19%E -2.67%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.49%EV -5.89%E -3.73%K -10.15%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-04 10:01
Marathon Bet2.31I 43.29%NM 41.07%EV -6.60%E -2.86%K -5.04%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.93%EV -4.10%E -2.55%K -6.72%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-04 09:59
SportsBet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -7.00%E -3.04%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -2.91%E -1.78%K -4.62%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-04 10:10
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.00%E -3.04%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.50%E -2.16%K -5.65%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-04 10:10
BetAnything2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.00%E -3.04%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.50%E -2.16%K -5.65%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-04 10:04
Everygame2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -7.00%E -3.04%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.69%E -2.93%K -7.82%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-04 09:59
PointsBet (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -7.00%E -3.04%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.48%E -4.13%K -11.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-04 10:15
Mr Green (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -7.00%E -3.04%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.48%E -4.13%K -11.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-04 10:15
Tipico (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.00%E -3.04%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -7.67%E -4.95%K -13.95%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-04 10:15
ReBet2.29I 43.67%NM 42.03%EV -7.41%E -3.23%K -5.74%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.97%EV -1.12%E -0.675%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-04 09:59
MyBookie.ag2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -9.02%E -4.01%K -7.22%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -1.72%E -1.04%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-04 10:10
BetUS2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -9.02%E -4.01%K -7.22%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -1.72%E -1.04%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-04 10:08
Caesars2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -9.02%E -4.01%K -7.22%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.50%E -2.16%K -5.65%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-04 10:14
BetMGM2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -9.02%E -4.01%K -7.22%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -4.10%E -2.55%K -6.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-04 10:14
Sky Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -9.02%E -4.01%K -7.22%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.48%E -4.13%K -11.37%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-04 10:15
Paddy Power2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -9.02%E -4.01%K -7.22%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.48%E -4.13%K -11.37%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-04 10:15
Betclic (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -9.02%E -4.01%K -7.22%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -7.67%E -4.95%K -13.95%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-04 10:15
Winamax (DE)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -9.02%E -4.01%K -7.22%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.37%EV -8.27%E -5.37%K -15.31%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-04 10:15
1xBet2.22I 45.05%NM 43.08%EV -10.24%E -4.61%K -8.39%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.92%EV +0.071%E +0.042%K +0.104%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-04 10:07
Betway2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -11.04%E -5.02%K -9.20%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV +1.26%E +0.742%K +1.80%G +0.023%4.3%2026-07-04 10:15
FanDuel2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -11.04%E -5.02%K -9.20%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -0.525%E -0.314%K -0.784%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-04 10:14
Bet Victor2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -11.04%E -5.02%K -9.20%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -4.10%E -2.55%K -6.72%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-04 10:14
Ladbrokes (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -11.04%E -5.02%K -9.20%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -4.69%E -2.93%K -7.82%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-04 10:15
Winamax (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -11.04%E -5.02%K -9.20%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.46%EV -10.65%E -7.10%K -21.30%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-04 10:15
GTbets2.18I 45.87%NM 43.38%EV -11.85%E -5.44%K -10.05%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.62%EV -0.525%E -0.314%K -0.784%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-04 09:59
Betsson2.16I 46.30%NM 42.86%EV -12.66%E -5.86%K -10.92%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.14%EV -3.50%E -2.16%K -5.65%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-04 10:15
Fliff2.10I 47.62%NM 43.40%EV -15.09%E -7.18%K -13.72%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.60%EV -4.10%E -2.55%K -6.72%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-04 10:15
Coral2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -17.11%E -8.35%K -16.30%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV +1.26%E +0.742%K +1.80%G +0.023%7.6%2026-07-04 10:10
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (7)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.46I 40.65%NM 40.58%1.68I 59.52%NM 59.42%0.2%2026-07-04 10:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.64I 37.88%NM 37.74%1.60I 62.50%NM 62.26%0.4%2026-07-04 10:15
Matchbook2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57%1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43%0.5%2026-07-04 10:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24%0.6%2026-07-04 10:15
ProphetX2.58I 38.76%NM 37.53%1.55I 64.52%NM 62.47%3.3%2026-07-04 10:15
Novig2.47I 40.49%NM 38.71%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.29%4.6%2026-07-04 10:15
Smarkets2.42I 41.32%NM 39.50%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.50%4.6%2026-07-04 10:15