Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Laura Pigossi v Oceane Dodin

Kickoff: 2026-06-23 10:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Laura Pigossi (Local)

Prediction 38.03%2.63fair odd
EV +0.395%
Edge +0.150%
Kelly +0.241%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.54%38.20%38.10%39.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.472.502.6443.48%40.44%40.00%37.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Oceane Dodin (Visit)

Prediction 61.97%1.61fair odd
EV -3.32%
Edge -2.13%
Kelly -5.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.05%61.80%61.90%63.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.511.521.5669.93%66.16%65.79%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Laura Pigossi (Local): 38.03%; Oceane Dodin (Visit): 61.97%. For Laura Pigossi (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.63. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.64, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.395%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 36.54%EV +0.395%E +0.150%K +0.241%G +0.001%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.46%EV -5.80%E -3.82%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.7%2026-06-23 03:29
Pinnacle🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 38.24%EV -4.17%E -1.65%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.76%EV -3.32%E -2.13%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.8%2026-06-23 07:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.16%EV -4.17%E -1.65%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 62.84%EV -7.66%E -5.14%K -15.64%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-23 07:00
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -4.93%E -1.97%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.94%E -2.54%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-23 06:59
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -4.93%E -1.97%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.80%E -3.82%K -11.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-23 03:29
ReBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -4.93%E -1.97%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.80%E -3.82%K -11.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-23 07:30
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -4.93%E -1.97%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -7.04%E -4.69%K -14.08%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-23 07:27
NordicBet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 38.10%EV -6.07%E -2.46%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.90%EV -5.80%E -3.82%K -11.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-23 07:29
Unibet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -6.83%E -2.79%K -4.71%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.87%EV -6.42%E -4.25%K -12.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-23 07:29
theScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.83%E -2.79%K -4.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -7.04%E -4.69%K -14.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-23 07:30
MyBookie.ag🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.17%EV -7.59%E -3.12%K -5.31%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.83%EV -7.04%E -4.69%K -14.08%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-23 07:29
NetBet (FR)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.63%EV -9.87%E -4.17%K -7.21%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 62.37%EV -11.38%E -7.96%K -26.47%G +0.000%12.1%2026-06-23 03:29
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -12.53%E -5.45%K -9.64%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -5.18%E -3.39%K -9.78%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-23 03:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91%1.60I 62.50%NM 62.09%0.7%2026-06-23 07:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 37.95%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.05%1.4%2026-06-23 07:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.60I 38.46%NM 37.95%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.05%1.4%2026-06-23 07:40
Smarkets2.58I 38.76%NM 37.83%1.57I 63.69%NM 62.17%2.5%2026-06-23 07:40