Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 11.00
assuming max odds 1.22
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kayla Cross (Local): 13.07%; Mary Stoiana (Visit): 86.93%. For Kayla Cross (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.65. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +43.80%.
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +43.80%E +3.98%K +4.38%G +1.92% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -7.86%E -7.41%K -130.95%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-06-23 10:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +30.73%E +3.07%K +3.41%G +1.05% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -8.73%E -8.31%K -174.53%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-23 10:20 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.72%EV +27.46%E +2.82%K +3.14%G +0.862% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.28%EV -8.73%E -8.31%K -174.53%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-23 10:18 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV +24.19%E +2.55%K +2.85%G +0.689% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -8.73%E -8.31%K -174.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-23 10:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.44%EV +14.39%E +1.64%K +1.86%G +0.267% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 89.56%EV -11.33%E -11.11%K -566.71%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-06-23 10:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -1.95%E -0.261%K -0.301%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.62%EV -7.86%E -7.41%K -130.95%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-23 10:20 |
| ReBet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV -35.94%E -7.34%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV +1.70%E +1.46%K +10.03%G +0.171% | 5.9% | 2026-06-23 07:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.77I 20.96%NM 20.10%EV -37.64%E -7.89%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.90%EV +4.31%E +3.59%K +21.56%G +0.930% | 4.3% | 2026-06-23 03:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -37.90%E -7.98%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV +1.70%E +1.46%K +10.03%G +0.171% | 6.5% | 2026-06-23 07:28 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -37.90%E -7.98%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV +0.836%E +0.720%K +5.22%G +0.044% | 7.3% | 2026-06-23 07:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -44.44%E -10.46%K -13.67%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV +6.05%E +4.96%K +27.51%G +1.66% | 5.5% | 2026-06-23 10:06 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.89% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 92.11% | 1.5% | 2026-06-23 10:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.89% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 92.11% | 1.5% | 2026-06-23 10:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.89% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 92.11% | 1.5% | 2026-06-23 10:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.12% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.88% | 2.7% | 2026-06-23 10:20 |