Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Katie Volynets v Laura Samson

Kickoff: 2026-06-23 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Katie Volynets (Local)

Prediction 72.47%1.38fair odd
EV -1.44%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -4.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.33%72.59%72.51%73.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.311.301.3678.74%76.50%76.92%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Laura Samson (Visit)

Prediction 27.53%3.63fair odd
EV +1.59%
Edge +0.430%
Kelly +0.589%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 3.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.05%27.41%27.49%29.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.353.333.6931.25%29.89%30.03%27.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Katie Volynets (Local): 72.47%; Laura Samson (Visit): 27.53%. For Laura Samson (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.63. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.69, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.59%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.95%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.30%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 26.05%EV +1.59%E +0.430%K +0.589%G +0.009%4.0%2026-06-23 12:30
Betway🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.65%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-23 03:29
ReBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -5.06%E -3.87%K -16.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -7.77%E -2.32%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-23 12:29
NetBet (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.51%EV -7.96%E -6.27%K -29.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -7.77%E -2.32%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-23 10:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.98%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.30%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.02%EV -8.05%E -2.41%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-23 07:18
GTbets🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 71.00%EV -1.44%E -1.06%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.00%EV -8.33%E -2.50%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.6%2026-06-23 03:29
theScore Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -5.06%E -3.87%K -16.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -9.15%E -2.77%K -3.98%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-23 03:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -10.53%E -3.24%K -4.68%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-23 10:20
Paddy Power🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -6.51%E -5.05%K -22.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -10.53%E -3.24%K -4.68%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-23 03:28
MyBookie.ag🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.52%EV -6.51%E -5.05%K -22.46%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.48%EV -10.80%E -3.33%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-23 07:18
PlayUp🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -2.17%E -1.60%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -11.90%E -3.72%K -5.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-23 12:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.32I 75.76%NM 73.96%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.04%2.4%2026-06-23 12:30
Smarkets1.32I 75.76%NM 73.96%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.04%2.4%2026-06-23 07:19
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.32I 75.76%NM 73.96%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.04%2.4%2026-06-23 12:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.32I 75.76%NM 73.96%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.04%2.4%2026-06-23 12:30