Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Katherine Sebov v Noma Noha Akugue

Kickoff: 2026-06-24 10:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Katherine Sebov (Local)

Prediction 36.83%2.72fair odd
EV -3.15%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -1.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.47%37.24%36.67%39.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.542.582.6342.02%39.29%38.83%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Noma Noha Akugue (Visit)

Prediction 63.17%1.58fair odd
EV -3.34%
Edge -2.19%
Kelly -6.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.87%62.76%63.33%64.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.481.481.5369.93%67.39%67.34%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Katherine Sebov (Local): 36.83%; Noma Noha Akugue (Visit): 63.17%. For Katherine Sebov (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.72. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.63, with an expected value of -3.15%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.63%EV -3.15%E -1.20%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.37%EV -3.98%E -2.62%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.8%2026-06-24 09:00
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -3.51%E -1.34%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -9.03%E -6.27%K -20.52%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-24 04:20
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.25%E -1.64%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.24%E -3.49%K -10.48%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-24 04:09
ReBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.25%E -1.64%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.24%E -3.49%K -10.48%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-24 09:40
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -4.25%E -1.64%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.50%E -4.39%K -13.55%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-24 06:09
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -6.09%E -2.39%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -5.87%E -3.94%K -11.98%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-24 09:40
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -7.93%E -3.17%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.50%E -4.39%K -13.55%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-24 09:39
MyBookie.ag🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -7.93%E -3.17%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -7.13%E -4.85%K -15.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-24 09:40
NetBet (FR)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 36.67%EV -9.04%E -3.66%K -6.15%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 63.33%EV -9.66%E -6.76%K -22.47%G +0.000%10.4%2026-06-24 09:40
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -12.35%E -5.19%K -8.95%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -3.34%E -2.19%K -6.31%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-24 09:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%0.6%2026-06-24 09:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%0.6%2026-06-24 09:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%0.6%2026-06-24 09:10
Smarkets2.70I 37.04%NM 36.17%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.83%2.4%2026-06-24 09:20