Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Katarzyna Kawa v Kayla Day

Kickoff: 2026-06-25 10:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

43%

57%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Katarzyna Kawa (Local)

Prediction 43.17%2.32fair odd

EV +0.597%

Edge +0.256%

Kelly +0.449%

Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 2.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

41.46%43.35%42.36%45.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.052.182.202.3348.78%45.81%45.45%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kayla Day (Visit)

Prediction 56.83%1.76fair odd

EV -0.555%

Edge -0.317%

Kelly -0.741%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

54.23%56.65%57.64%58.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.581.661.651.7563.29%60.34%60.61%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Katarzyna Kawa (Local): 43.17%; Kayla Day (Visit): 56.83%. For Katarzyna Kawa (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.32. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.33, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.597%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	2.33I 42.92%NM 41.46%EV +0.597%E +0.256%K +0.449%G +0.003%	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.54%EV -6.24%E -3.78%K -9.60%G +0.000%	3.5%	2026-06-25 09:50
theScore Bet🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -2.86%E -1.27%K -2.29%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -8.51%E -5.29%K -13.95%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-06-25 10:00
ReBet🎯	2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -3.72%E -1.67%K -3.03%G +0.000%	1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.67%E -3.42%K -8.59%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-06-25 09:59
NordicBet🎯	2.21I 45.25%NM 42.60%EV -4.58%E -2.07%K -3.79%G +0.000%	1.64I 60.98%NM 57.40%EV -6.81%E -4.15%K -10.63%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-06-25 10:00
PlayUp🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.02%E -2.28%K -4.18%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.24%E -3.78%K -9.60%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-06-25 10:00
Paddy Power🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.02%E -2.28%K -4.18%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.94%E -4.90%K -12.81%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-06-24 18:20
GTbets🎯	2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -6.74%E -3.12%K -5.81%G +0.000%	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -3.40%E -2.00%K -4.85%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-06-24 18:00
NetBet (FR)🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -7.17%E -3.34%K -6.24%G +0.000%	1.58I 63.29%NM 57.64%EV -10.22%E -6.47%K -17.61%G +0.000%	9.8%	2026-06-25 09:50
MyBookie.ag🎯	2.13I 46.95%NM 43.50%EV -8.04%E -3.77%K -7.11%G +0.000%	1.64I 60.98%NM 56.50%EV -6.81%E -4.15%K -10.63%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-06-24 18:18
Betway🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -9.33%E -4.44%K -8.48%G +0.000%	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -0.555%E -0.317%K -0.741%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-06-25 10:00
BoyleSports🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -11.49%E -5.61%K -10.94%G +0.000%	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -1.69%E -0.978%K -2.32%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-06-25 04:49

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24%	1.61I 62.11%NM 61.76%	0.6%	2026-06-25 10:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24%	1.61I 62.11%NM 61.76%	0.6%	2026-06-25 10:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24%	1.61I 62.11%NM 61.76%	0.6%	2026-06-25 10:00
ProphetX◎	2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24%	1.61I 62.11%NM 61.76%	0.6%	2026-06-25 10:00
Smarkets◎	2.54I 39.37%NM 38.50%	1.59I 62.89%NM 61.50%	2.3%	2026-06-25 10:00