Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Joanna Garland v Tyra Caterina Grant

Kickoff: 2026-06-24 10:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Joanna Garland (Local)

Prediction 45.30%2.21fair odd
EV -1.25%
Edge -0.574%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.10%45.70%45.45%48.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.072.082.1852.36%48.35%47.96%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tyra Caterina Grant (Visit)

Prediction 54.70%1.83fair odd
EV -1.54%
Edge -0.853%
Kelly -1.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.48%54.30%54.55%55.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.711.711.8060.61%58.39%58.48%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Joanna Garland (Local): 45.30%; Tyra Caterina Grant (Visit): 54.70%. For Joanna Garland (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.21. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.18, with an expected value of -1.25%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -1.25%E -0.574%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -5.91%E -3.44%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.0%2026-06-24 08:30
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.61%E -1.21%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -7.01%E -4.12%K -10.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-24 09:50
ReBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -3.97%E -1.87%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -5.36%E -3.10%K -7.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-24 09:50
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.88%E -2.32%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.27%E -2.44%K -5.69%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-23 17:59
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.88%E -2.32%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.65%E -5.18%K -12.91%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-23 17:49
GTbets🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV -5.33%E -2.55%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.43%EV -4.27%E -2.44%K -5.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-23 18:00
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.12%EV -5.78%E -2.78%K -5.35%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.88%EV -6.46%E -3.78%K -9.10%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-24 09:49
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -7.14%E -3.48%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -6.46%E -3.78%K -9.10%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-23 18:00
MyBookie.ag🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%EV -8.50%E -4.21%K -8.33%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%EV -7.01%E -4.12%K -10.01%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-23 18:09
NetBet (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.96%EV -8.50%E -4.21%K -8.33%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.04%EV -9.74%E -5.90%K -14.99%G +0.000%10.1%2026-06-24 06:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.36%EV -9.41%E -4.70%K -9.41%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.64%EV -9.19%E -5.54%K -13.93%G +0.000%10.2%2026-06-24 09:50
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -13.48%E -7.06%K -14.82%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -1.54%E -0.853%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-24 02:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94%0.4%2026-06-24 09:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94%0.4%2026-06-24 09:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94%0.4%2026-06-24 09:50
Smarkets2.20I 45.45%NM 44.86%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.14%1.3%2026-06-24 09:50