La escuela de los momios

Jessica Pegula v Sara Sorribes Tormo

Inicio: 2026-07-01 15:53 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

65 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Jessica Pegula (Local)

Predicción 90.98%1.10momio equitativo
EV -0.837%
Ventaja -0.768%
Kelly -9.30%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.09

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
88.30%90.92%90.99%93.09%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.021.051.051.0998.04%95.60%95.24%91.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Sara Sorribes Tormo (Visitante)

Predicción 9.02%11.08momio equitativo
EV +26.35%
Ventaja +1.88%
Kelly +2.03%
Crecimiento +0.534%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 14.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
6.91%9.08%9.01%11.70%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
8.0010.3510.0014.0012.50%9.66%10.00%7.14%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (65 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Paddy Power1.04I 96.15%NM 93.09%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.65%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.91%EV +26.35%E +1.88%K +2.03%G +0.534%3.3%2026-07-01 15:40
BetOnline.ag1.02I 98.04%NM 93.09%EV -7.21%E -7.06%K -360.27%G +0.000%13.75I 7.27%NM 6.91%EV +24.09%E +1.75%K +1.89%G +0.455%5.3%2026-07-01 15:40
FanDuel1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -6.30%E -6.11%K -209.85%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +17.32%E +1.33%K +1.44%G +0.250%4.8%2026-07-01 15:40
Winamax (DE)1.05I 95.24%NM 92.25%EV -4.48%E -4.26%K -89.52%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.75%EV +12.81%E +1.02%K +1.11%G +0.143%3.2%2026-07-01 15:40
SportsBet1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -6.30%E -6.11%K -209.85%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV +12.81%E +1.02%K +1.11%G +0.143%5.1%2026-07-01 15:40
DraftKings1.05I 95.24%NM 92.08%EV -4.48%E -4.26%K -89.52%G +0.000%12.20I 8.20%NM 7.92%EV +10.10%E +0.828%K +0.902%G +0.091%3.4%2026-07-01 15:40
Unibet (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.65%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +8.30%E +0.692%K +0.754%G +0.063%4.5%2026-07-01 15:40
Bovada1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.65%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +8.30%E +0.692%K +0.754%G +0.063%4.5%2026-07-01 15:38
Tipico (DE)1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -7.21%E -7.06%K -360.27%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV +8.30%E +0.692%K +0.754%G +0.063%6.4%2026-07-01 15:35
Betclic (FR)1.06I 94.34%NM 91.73%EV -3.57%E -3.36%K -59.44%G +0.000%11.75I 8.51%NM 8.27%EV +6.04%E +0.514%K +0.562%G +0.034%2.9%2026-07-01 15:38
BetAnything1.04I 96.15%NM 91.50%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.65%G +0.000%11.20I 8.93%NM 8.50%EV +1.08%E +0.096%K +0.106%G +0.001%5.1%2026-07-01 15:40
Dabble (AU)1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -3.57%E -3.36%K -59.44%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV -0.727%E -0.066%K -0.073%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-01 15:40
1xBet1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.48%E -4.26%K -89.52%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -0.727%E -0.066%K -0.073%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-01 15:40
ReBet1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.48%E -4.26%K -89.52%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -0.727%E -0.066%K -0.073%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-01 15:39
Winamax (FR)1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.65%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -0.727%E -0.066%K -0.073%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-01 15:40
Sky Bet1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.30%E -6.11%K -209.85%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -0.727%E -0.066%K -0.073%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-01 15:40
888sport1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.30%E -6.11%K -209.85%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -0.727%E -0.066%K -0.073%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-01 15:40
888sport (SE)1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.30%E -6.11%K -209.85%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -0.727%E -0.066%K -0.073%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-01 15:40
Mr Green (SE)1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.30%E -6.11%K -209.85%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -0.727%E -0.066%K -0.073%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-01 15:40
TAB1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -7.21%E -7.06%K -360.27%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -0.727%E -0.066%K -0.073%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-01 15:40
Pinnacle1.05I 95.24%NM 91.12%EV -4.48%E -4.26%K -89.52%G +0.000%10.78I 9.28%NM 8.88%EV -2.71%E -0.252%K -0.277%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-01 15:40
Unibet (FR)1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.65%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -5.24%E -0.499%K -0.551%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-01 15:39
Fanatics1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.65%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -5.24%E -0.499%K -0.551%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-01 15:39
NetBet (FR)1.02I 98.04%NM 91.15%EV -7.21%E -7.06%K -360.27%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -5.24%E -0.499%K -0.551%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-01 15:40
Fliff1.03I 97.09%NM 90.95%EV -6.30%E -6.11%K -209.85%G +0.000%10.35I 9.66%NM 9.05%EV -6.59%E -0.637%K -0.705%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-01 15:40
GTbets1.09I 91.74%NM 90.44%EV -0.837%E -0.768%K -9.30%G +0.000%10.31I 9.70%NM 9.56%EV -6.95%E -0.674%K -0.747%G +0.000%1.4%2026-07-01 15:40
Betr (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 90.79%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.65%G +0.000%10.25I 9.76%NM 9.21%EV -7.50%E -0.731%K -0.810%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-01 15:40
Marathon Bet1.04I 96.15%NM 90.79%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.65%G +0.000%10.25I 9.76%NM 9.21%EV -7.50%E -0.731%K -0.810%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-01 15:40
PlayUp1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -3.57%E -3.36%K -59.44%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -9.75%E -0.975%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-01 15:40
Ladbrokes (UK)1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -3.57%E -3.36%K -59.44%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -9.75%E -0.975%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-01 15:40
Coral1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -3.57%E -3.36%K -59.44%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -9.75%E -0.975%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-01 15:40
BoyleSports1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -3.57%E -3.36%K -59.44%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -9.75%E -0.975%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-01 15:40
Betway1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.48%E -4.26%K -89.52%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -9.75%E -0.975%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-01 15:40
William Hill1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.48%E -4.26%K -89.52%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -9.75%E -0.975%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-01 15:38
theScore Bet1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.48%E -4.26%K -89.52%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -9.75%E -0.975%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-01 15:40
PointsBet (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.65%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -9.75%E -0.975%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-01 15:40
betfred_uk1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.65%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -9.75%E -0.975%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-01 15:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.65%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -9.75%E -0.975%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-01 15:40
BetUS1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.65%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -9.75%E -0.975%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-01 15:40
NordicBet1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.65%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -9.75%E -0.975%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-01 15:40
Betsson1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.65%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -9.75%E -0.975%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-01 15:40
Neds1.05I 95.24%NM 90.28%EV -4.48%E -4.26%K -89.52%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.72%EV -12.01%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-01 15:40
Ladbrokes (AU)1.05I 95.24%NM 90.28%EV -4.48%E -4.26%K -89.52%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.72%EV -12.01%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-01 15:40
MyBookie.ag1.04I 96.15%NM 90.32%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.65%G +0.000%9.70I 10.31%NM 9.68%EV -12.46%E -1.28%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-01 15:40
Unibet1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -3.57%E -3.36%K -59.44%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -14.26%E -1.50%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-01 15:40
Unibet (SE)1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -3.57%E -3.36%K -59.44%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -14.26%E -1.50%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-01 15:40
TABtouch1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -3.57%E -3.36%K -59.44%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -14.26%E -1.50%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-01 15:40
BetRivers1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -3.57%E -3.36%K -59.44%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -14.26%E -1.50%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-01 15:38
Casumo1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -3.57%E -3.36%K -59.44%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -14.26%E -1.50%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-01 15:40
LeoVegas (SE)1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -3.57%E -3.36%K -59.44%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -14.26%E -1.50%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-01 15:40
Unibet (NL)1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -3.57%E -3.36%K -59.44%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -14.26%E -1.50%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-01 15:40
Grosvenor1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -3.57%E -3.36%K -59.44%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -14.26%E -1.50%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-01 15:40
Bally Bet1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -3.57%E -3.36%K -59.44%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -14.26%E -1.50%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-01 15:40
Svenska Spel1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -3.57%E -3.36%K -59.44%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -14.26%E -1.50%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-01 15:40
ATG (SE)1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -3.57%E -3.36%K -59.44%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -14.26%E -1.50%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-01 15:40
betPARX1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -3.57%E -3.36%K -59.44%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -14.26%E -1.50%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-01 15:39
Hard Rock Bet1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -3.57%E -3.36%K -59.44%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -14.26%E -1.50%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-01 15:40
Virgin Bet1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.65%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -14.26%E -1.50%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-01 15:40
LiveScore Bet1.03I 97.09%NM 90.22%EV -6.30%E -6.11%K -209.85%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.78%EV -14.26%E -1.50%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-01 15:40
Everygame1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -4.48%E -4.26%K -89.52%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -18.78%E -2.09%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-01 15:39
BetMGM1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -4.48%E -4.26%K -89.52%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -18.78%E -2.09%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-01 15:40
LeoVegas1.03I 97.09%NM 89.73%EV -6.30%E -6.11%K -209.85%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -18.78%E -2.09%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-01 15:40
PMU (FR)1.02I 98.04%NM 89.82%EV -7.21%E -7.06%K -360.27%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.18%EV -18.78%E -2.09%K -2.35%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-01 15:40
Caesars1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -3.57%E -3.36%K -59.44%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -27.80%E -3.48%K -3.97%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-01 15:40
Bet Victor1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -4.48%E -4.26%K -89.52%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -27.80%E -3.48%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-01 15:34
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.06I 94.34%NM 94.13%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.87%0.2%2026-07-01 15:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.06I 94.34%NM 94.13%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.87%0.2%2026-07-01 15:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.06I 94.34%NM 94.13%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.87%0.2%2026-07-01 15:40
Matchbook1.06I 94.34%NM 93.96%16.50I 6.06%NM 6.04%0.4%2026-07-01 15:40
ProphetX1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60%1.0%2026-07-01 15:40
Novig1.05I 95.24%NM 93.16%14.29I 7.00%NM 6.84%2.2%2026-07-01 15:39
Smarkets1.04I 96.15%NM 93.90%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.10%2.4%2026-07-01 15:40