Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Iryna Shymanovich v Katherine Sebov

Kickoff: 2026-06-25 11:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Iryna Shymanovich (Local)

Prediction 65.90%1.52fair odd
EV -1.16%
Edge -0.771%
Kelly -2.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.50%66.64%65.41%70.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.431.441.5073.53%69.71%69.44%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Katherine Sebov (Visit)

Prediction 34.10%2.93fair odd
EV +10.84%
Edge +3.33%
Kelly +4.82%
Growth +0.522%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.50%33.36%34.59%37.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.742.753.2540.00%36.50%36.36%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Iryna Shymanovich (Local): 65.90%; Katherine Sebov (Visit): 34.10%. For Katherine Sebov (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.93. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.84%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Betway🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -10.38%E -7.63%K -28.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV +10.84%E +3.33%K +4.82%G +0.522%4.3%2026-06-25 10:20
NordicBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.61%EV -9.72%E -7.10%K -26.28%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.39%EV -2.46%E -0.861%K -1.32%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-25 10:20
theScore Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -7.75%E -5.53%K -19.36%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -2.80%E -0.984%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-25 10:20
Pinnacle🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.41%EV -3.13%E -2.13%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.59%EV -5.19%E -1.87%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.0%2026-06-25 10:10
ReBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -3.79%E -2.60%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -6.21%E -2.26%K -3.55%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-25 09:59
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.45%E -3.07%K -9.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.21%E -2.26%K -3.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-25 10:04
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.11%E -3.55%K -11.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.92%E -2.93%K -4.66%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-25 10:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.00%EV -7.75%E -5.53%K -19.36%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -11.33%E -4.36%K -7.08%G +0.000%9.9%2026-06-25 10:00
MyBookie.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.16%E -0.771%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -13.03%E -5.11%K -8.41%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-25 10:19
Fliff🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.07%EV -5.77%E -4.03%K -13.42%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.93%EV -13.03%E -5.11%K -8.41%G +0.000%9.1%2026-06-25 10:19
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -1.16%E -0.771%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -14.74%E -5.90%K -9.83%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-25 10:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%1.2%2026-06-25 10:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%1.2%2026-06-25 10:20
Smarkets1.49I 67.11%NM 66.06%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.94%1.6%2026-06-25 10:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 63.05%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.95%5.7%2026-06-25 10:20
ProphetX1.49I 67.11%NM 63.03%2.54I 39.37%NM 36.97%6.5%2026-06-25 10:19