Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Harmony Tan v Tyra Caterina Grant

Kickoff: 2026-06-25 11:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Harmony Tan (Local)

Prediction 52.11%1.92fair odd
EV +3.69%
Edge +1.86%
Kelly +3.73%
Growth +0.138%

assuming max odds 1.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.45%51.86%53.05%54.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.831.811.9957.80%54.69%55.10%50.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tyra Caterina Grant (Visit)

Prediction 47.89%2.09fair odd
EV +0.577%
Edge +0.275%
Kelly +0.524%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.45%48.14%46.95%51.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.931.922.1056.18%51.70%52.08%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Harmony Tan (Local): 52.11%; Tyra Caterina Grant (Visit): 47.89%. For Harmony Tan (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.92. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.99, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.69%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 48.45%EV +3.69%E +1.86%K +3.73%G +0.138%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.55%EV -10.44%E -5.58%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.7%2026-06-25 10:10
PlayUp🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV +1.61%E +0.824%K +1.69%G +0.027%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -11.40%E -6.16%K -13.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-25 10:07
ReBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV +0.044%E +0.023%K +0.048%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -9.48%E -5.02%K -10.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-25 09:59
GTbets🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -2.04%E -1.09%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -7.57%E -3.92%K -8.13%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-25 09:59
MyBookie.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -3.60%E -1.95%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -9.00%E -4.74%K -10.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-25 10:09
NetBet (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.04%EV -3.60%E -1.95%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 50.96%EV -14.75%E -8.29%K -18.91%G +0.000%10.2%2026-06-25 10:00
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.02%EV -7.25%E -4.07%K -9.30%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%EV -7.57%E -3.92%K -8.13%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-25 10:10
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.77%E -4.39%K -10.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -4.21%E -2.11%K -4.21%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-25 10:10
Betway🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -8.81%E -5.04%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV +0.577%E +0.275%K +0.524%G +0.003%4.8%2026-06-25 10:09
Fliff🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.33%EV -9.33%E -5.36%K -12.61%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.67%EV -8.52%E -4.46%K -9.37%G +0.000%9.8%2026-06-25 10:10
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -9.86%E -5.70%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -1.82%E -0.887%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-25 10:10
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -9.86%E -5.70%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -4.21%E -2.11%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-25 10:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50%0.5%2026-06-25 10:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.06I 48.54%NM 48.11%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.89%0.9%2026-06-25 10:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.0%2026-06-25 10:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 48.32%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.68%3.5%2026-06-25 10:10
ProphetX1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%5.1%2026-06-25 10:10