Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.30
assuming max odds 4.22
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Greet Minnen (Local): 76.09%; Fiona Ferro (Visit): 23.91%. For Fiona Ferro (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.18. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.22, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.899%.
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.15%EV -4.89%E -3.91%K -19.55%G +0.000% | 4.22I 23.70%NM 22.85%EV +0.899%E +0.213%K +0.279%G +0.003% | 3.7% | 2026-06-23 06:49 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.24%EV -4.89%E -3.91%K -19.55%G +0.000% | 4.01I 24.94%NM 23.76%EV -4.12%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-23 07:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.89%E -3.91%K -19.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.36%E -1.09%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-23 06:10 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -6.41%E -5.21%K -27.86%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -4.36%E -1.09%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-23 07:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.17%E -5.88%K -32.59%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.36%E -1.09%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-23 06:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.17%E -5.88%K -32.59%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.36%E -1.09%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-23 06:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.21%EV -6.41%E -5.21%K -27.86%G +0.000% | 3.94I 25.38%NM 23.79%EV -5.80%E -1.47%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-23 06:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.02%EV -6.41%E -5.21%K -27.86%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.98%EV -6.75%E -1.73%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-23 07:09 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.94%EV -7.17%E -5.88%K -32.59%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.06%EV -7.95%E -2.06%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-23 06:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 76.69%EV -10.97%E -9.38%K -64.56%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.31%EV -7.95%E -2.06%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-06-23 07:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.17%E -5.88%K -32.59%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -10.34%E -2.76%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-23 06:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.85%EV -4.89%E -3.91%K -19.55%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.15%EV -11.06%E -2.97%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-23 07:28 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -1.08%E -0.833%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -22.29%E -6.86%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-23 03:40 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 76.64% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.36% | 1.9% | 2026-06-23 06:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 76.64% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.36% | 1.9% | 2026-06-23 06:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.78% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.22% | 2.5% | 2026-06-23 06:49 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51% | 6.0% | 2026-06-23 07:30 |