Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.31
assuming max odds 5.08
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Francisca Jorge (Local): 77.52%; Lina Gjorcheska (Visit): 22.48%. For Lina Gjorcheska (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.45. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.08, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.19%.
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.80%EV -12.40%E -10.97%K -95.39%G +0.000% | 5.08I 19.69%NM 18.20%EV +14.19%E +2.79%K +3.48%G +0.493% | 8.2% | 2026-06-24 15:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -11.63%E -10.20%K -83.04%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV +12.39%E +2.48%K +3.10%G +0.384% | 7.7% | 2026-06-24 15:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -9.30%E -7.95%K -54.70%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV +1.15%E +0.256%K +0.329%G +0.004% | 7.7% | 2026-06-24 15:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -8.52%E -7.22%K -47.36%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -1.10%E -0.249%K -0.322%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-24 15:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.10%E -2.48%K -12.39%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -10.09%E -2.52%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-24 15:46 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.47%EV -6.97%E -5.81%K -34.87%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -12.33%E -3.16%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-06-24 15:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.75%EV +1.55%E +1.19%K +5.01%G +0.078% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 26.25%EV -17.28%E -4.70%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-06-24 15:40 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV +0.778%E +0.599%K +2.59%G +0.020% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -25.82%E -7.82%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-24 15:48 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 75.85% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15% | 9.0% | 2026-06-24 15:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 76.13% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.87% | 13.2% | 2026-06-24 15:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 76.13% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.87% | 13.2% | 2026-06-24 15:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 75.88% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.12% | 13.6% | 2026-06-24 15:50 |