Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Elizabeth Mandlik v Alina Charaeva

Kickoff: 2026-06-23 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

43%

57%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Elizabeth Mandlik (Local)

Prediction 43.33%2.31fair odd

EV -0.331%

Edge -0.144%

Kelly -0.255%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

41.33%43.44%43.39%44.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.052.182.192.3048.78%45.94%45.77%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Alina Charaeva (Visit)

Prediction 56.67%1.76fair odd

EV -3.10%

Edge -1.81%

Kelly -4.37%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

55.11%56.56%56.61%58.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.611.651.641.7162.11%60.64%61.16%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Elizabeth Mandlik (Local): 43.33%; Alina Charaeva (Visit): 56.67%. For Elizabeth Mandlik (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.31. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.30, with an expected value of -0.331%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
GTbets🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -0.331%E -0.144%K -0.255%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -8.20%E -5.06%K -13.23%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-06-23 03:29
Pinnacle🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.66%E -2.12%K -3.89%G +0.000%	1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.10%E -1.81%K -4.37%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-06-23 12:30
Betway🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.66%E -2.12%K -3.89%G +0.000%	1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.67%E -2.16%K -5.24%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-06-23 06:39
ReBet🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.66%E -2.12%K -3.89%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.50%E -3.94%K -10.00%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-06-23 12:29
Paddy Power🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -4.66%E -2.12%K -3.89%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -8.20%E -5.06%K -13.23%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-06-23 07:27
theScore Bet🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -4.66%E -2.12%K -3.89%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -8.20%E -5.06%K -13.23%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-06-23 03:30
Marathon Bet🎯	2.17I 46.08%NM 43.19%EV -5.96%E -2.75%K -5.10%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -6.50%E -3.94%K -10.00%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-06-23 12:30
PlayUp🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.83%E -3.18%K -5.94%G +0.000%	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.67%E -2.16%K -5.24%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-06-23 12:30
Unibet (FR)🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -6.83%E -3.18%K -5.94%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -8.20%E -5.06%K -13.23%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-06-23 12:30
MyBookie.ag🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -6.83%E -3.18%K -5.94%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -8.20%E -5.06%K -13.23%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-06-23 12:29
NetBet (FR)🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -6.83%E -3.18%K -5.94%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 57.18%EV -8.77%E -5.45%K -14.37%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-06-23 10:19
BoyleSports🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -11.16%E -5.45%K -10.63%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -5.37%E -3.21%K -8.01%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-06-23 12:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	2.30I 43.48%NM 42.79%	1.72I 58.14%NM 57.21%	1.6%	2026-06-23 12:30
Smarkets◎	2.30I 43.48%NM 42.79%	1.72I 58.14%NM 57.21%	1.6%	2026-06-23 12:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	2.30I 43.48%NM 42.79%	1.72I 58.14%NM 57.21%	1.6%	2026-06-23 12:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	2.30I 43.48%NM 42.79%	1.72I 58.14%NM 57.21%	1.6%	2026-06-23 12:30