Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.05
assuming max odds 1.93
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Darja Semenistaja (Local): 48.29%; Nao Hibino (Visit): 51.71%. For Nao Hibino (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.934. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.930, with an expected value of -0.203%; they did not produce positive expected value.
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -1.00%E -0.489%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -6.92%E -3.85%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-24 16:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -1.00%E -0.489%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -10.54%E -6.09%K -14.44%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-24 16:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -3.42%E -1.71%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -8.48%E -4.79%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-24 16:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -3.42%E -1.71%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -10.54%E -6.09%K -14.44%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-24 16:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.17%EV -5.35%E -2.73%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.83%EV -9.51%E -5.43%K -12.68%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-24 16:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -6.31%E -3.25%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -3.82%E -2.05%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-24 15:52 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.13%EV -7.28%E -3.79%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.87%EV -0.203%E -0.105%K -0.218%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-24 16:00 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -8.25%E -4.34%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -1.24%E -0.648%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-24 15:54 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -8.25%E -4.34%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -4.34%E -2.35%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-24 15:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -8.25%E -4.34%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -4.34%E -2.35%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-24 15:57 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.40%EV -9.21%E -4.90%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.60%EV -1.24%E -0.648%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-24 15:56 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.14%EV -11.63%E -6.35%K -14.01%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 49.86%EV -4.86%E -2.64%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-06-24 15:54 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 50.27%EV -12.59%E -6.96%K -15.55%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.73%EV -5.37%E -2.94%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-06-24 15:51 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27% | 3.9% | 2026-06-24 16:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.97% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.03% | 4.6% | 2026-06-24 16:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22% | 4.6% | 2026-06-24 16:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.79% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21% | 6.0% | 2026-06-24 16:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74% | 6.2% | 2026-06-24 16:00 |