Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Darja Semenistaja v Anastasia Gasanova

Kickoff: 2026-06-25 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

53%

47%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Darja Semenistaja (Local)

Prediction 53.27%1.88fair odd

EV +1.74%

Edge +0.913%

Kelly +1.92%

Growth +0.033%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

48.93%52.79%53.73%56.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.651.761.741.9160.61%56.91%57.47%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Anastasia Gasanova (Visit)

Prediction 46.73%2.14fair odd

EV +2.34%

Edge +1.07%

Kelly +1.97%

Growth +0.046%

assuming max odds 2.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

43.41%47.21%46.27%51.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.822.012.052.1954.95%49.82%48.66%45.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Darja Semenistaja (Local): 53.27%; Anastasia Gasanova (Visit): 46.73%. For Anastasia Gasanova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.14. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.19, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.34%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
GTbets🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59%EV -10.51%E -6.25%K -15.45%G +0.000%	2.19I 45.66%NM 43.41%EV +2.34%E +1.07%K +1.97%G +0.046%	5.2%	2026-06-25 13:04
ReBet🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -7.84%E -4.53%K -10.75%G +0.000%	2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -0.930%E -0.439%K -0.831%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-06-25 13:04
Betway🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -6.78%E -3.87%K -9.04%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -1.86%E -0.888%K -1.70%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-06-25 13:09
PlayUp🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -6.78%E -3.87%K -9.04%G +0.000%	2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -2.80%E -1.35%K -2.59%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-06-25 13:09
Pinnacle🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 53.49%EV -4.12%E -2.29%K -5.14%G +0.000%	2.07I 48.31%NM 46.51%EV -3.27%E -1.58%K -3.05%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-06-25 13:10
Marathon Bet🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 54.76%EV -8.91%E -5.21%K -12.55%G +0.000%	2.07I 48.31%NM 45.24%EV -3.27%E -1.58%K -3.05%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-06-25 12:59
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%EV -10.51%E -6.25%K -15.45%G +0.000%	2.06I 48.54%NM 44.92%EV -3.73%E -1.81%K -3.52%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-06-25 13:05
Fliff🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -12.11%E -7.34%K -18.62%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -4.20%E -2.05%K -4.00%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-06-25 13:09
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -8.38%E -4.87%K -11.64%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -6.54%E -3.27%K -6.54%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-06-25 13:04
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 53.97%EV -10.51%E -6.25%K -15.45%G +0.000%	1.97I 50.76%NM 46.03%EV -7.94%E -4.03%K -8.19%G +0.000%	10.3%	2026-06-25 13:04
theScore Bet🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -2.52%E -1.38%K -3.03%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -10.74%E -5.63%K -11.81%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-06-25 13:10
BoyleSports🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV +1.74%E +0.913%K +1.92%G +0.033%	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -14.48%E -7.91%K -17.45%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-06-25 13:10
Paddy Power🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -2.52%E -1.38%K -3.03%G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -14.48%E -7.91%K -17.45%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-06-25 13:10
NordicBet🎯	1.88I 53.19%NM 49.19%EV +0.146%E +0.077%K +0.166%G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95%NM 50.81%EV -14.95%E -8.21%K -18.23%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-06-25 13:10

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.88I 53.19%NM 52.76%	2.10I 47.62%NM 47.24%	0.8%	2026-06-25 13:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.88I 53.19%NM 52.76%	2.10I 47.62%NM 47.24%	0.8%	2026-06-25 13:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.88I 53.19%NM 52.76%	2.10I 47.62%NM 47.24%	0.8%	2026-06-25 13:10
ProphetX◎	2.04I 49.02%NM 48.09%	1.89I 52.91%NM 51.91%	1.9%	2026-06-25 13:10
Smarkets◎	1.89I 52.91%NM 51.41%	2.00I 50.00%NM 48.59%	2.9%	2026-06-25 13:10