Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 5.04
assuming max odds 1.22
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Caroline Dolehide (Local): 20.58%; Robin Montgomery (Visit): 79.42%. For Caroline Dolehide (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.86. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.04, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.71%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.04I 19.84%NM 19.10%EV +3.71%E +0.737%K +0.919%G +0.034% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.90%EV -5.49%E -4.61%K -28.88%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-23 15:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.87I 20.53%NM 19.77%EV +0.214%E +0.044%K +0.055%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.23%EV -4.69%E -3.91%K -23.47%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-23 15:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.10%EV -4.31%E -0.928%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.90%EV -7.08%E -6.05%K -41.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-23 15:18 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -7.40%E -1.64%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.69%E -3.91%K -23.47%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-23 15:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -7.40%E -1.64%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.69%E -3.91%K -23.47%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-23 15:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.40%E -1.64%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.08%E -6.05%K -41.62%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-23 15:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.34%EV -10.49%E -2.41%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.66%EV -6.28%E -5.32%K -34.90%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-23 15:18 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.39%EV -11.52%E -2.68%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.61%EV -7.08%E -6.05%K -41.62%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-06-23 15:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.06I 24.63%NM 23.11%EV -16.45%E -4.05%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.89%EV -3.10%E -2.55%K -14.11%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-23 15:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -17.69%E -4.42%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -4.69%E -3.91%K -23.47%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-23 15:20 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.43% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.57% | 0.5% | 2026-06-23 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.43% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.57% | 0.5% | 2026-06-23 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.03% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.97% | 0.8% | 2026-06-23 15:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.34% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.66% | 2.9% | 2026-06-23 15:20 |