Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ashlyn Krueger v Mai Hontama

Kickoff: 2026-06-24 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ashlyn Krueger (Local)

Prediction 79.16%1.26fair odd
EV +0.528%
Edge +0.416%
Kelly +1.96%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.25%82.66%79.16%98.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.191.201.2799.01%84.39%83.33%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mai Hontama (Visit)

Prediction 20.84%4.80fair odd
EV +1201.90%
Edge +19.24%
Kelly +19.56%
Growth +235.04%

assuming max odds 62.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
1.59%17.34%20.84%26.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.4511.474.2562.4628.99%8.72%23.53%1.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ashlyn Krueger (Local): 79.16%; Mai Hontama (Visit): 20.84%. For Mai Hontama (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.80. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 62.46, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1201.90%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 98.41%EV -20.05%E -19.85%K -2005.22%G +0.000%62.46I 1.60%NM 1.59%EV +1201.90%E +19.24%K +19.56%G +235.04%0.6%2026-06-24 17:50
MyBookie.ag🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -11.35%E -10.13%K -94.54%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV +19.85%E +3.45%K +4.18%G +0.830%6.7%2026-06-24 17:49
Betway🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.01%E -4.18%K -25.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.20%E -1.38%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-24 17:49
BoyleSports🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.39%E -6.31%K -43.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -6.20%E -1.38%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-24 17:49
Paddy Power🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -5.01%E -4.18%K -25.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -16.62%E -4.16%K -5.54%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-24 17:49
theScore Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV +0.528%E +0.416%K +1.96%G +0.010%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -24.96%E -6.93%K -9.60%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-24 17:50
NordicBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.85%EV -1.05%E -0.844%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.15%EV -26.42%E -7.48%K -10.44%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-24 17:50
Fliff🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.25%EV -0.263%E -0.209%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -28.09%E -8.14%K -11.46%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-24 17:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.14I 87.72%NM 87.25%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.75%0.5%2026-06-24 17:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.16I 86.21%NM 85.43%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57%0.9%2026-06-24 17:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.14I 87.72%NM 86.33%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.67%1.6%2026-06-24 17:50
Smarkets1.24I 80.65%NM 78.77%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.23%2.4%2026-06-24 17:50