Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Anastasia Gasanova v Emerson Jones

Kickoff: 2026-06-24 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

29%

71%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Anastasia Gasanova (Local)

Prediction 29.11%3.43fair odd

EV +229.87%

Edge +20.29%

Kelly +22.25%

Growth +51.15%

assuming max odds 11.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

8.70%26.11%29.11%37.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.504.343.1311.3340.00%23.02%32.00%8.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Emerson Jones (Visit)

Prediction 70.89%1.41fair odd

EV +6.33%

Edge +4.22%

Kelly +12.66%

Growth +0.801%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

62.50%73.89%70.89%91.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.081.301.331.5092.59%77.00%75.47%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Anastasia Gasanova (Local): 29.11%; Emerson Jones (Visit): 70.89%. For Anastasia Gasanova (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.43. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.33, corresponding to a positive expected value of +229.87%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	11.33I 8.83%NM 8.70%EV +229.87%E +20.29%K +22.25%G +51.15%	1.08I 92.59%NM 91.30%EV -23.44%E -21.71%K -293.05%G +0.000%	1.4%	2026-06-24 15:40
MyBookie.ag🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV +60.13%E +10.93%K +13.36%G +8.03%	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -19.19%E -16.83%K -137.08%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-06-24 15:48
Betway🎯	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -5.38%E -1.65%K -2.39%G +0.000%	1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.60%E -2.64%K -9.99%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-06-24 15:50
theScore Bet🎯	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -5.38%E -1.65%K -2.39%G +0.000%	1.31I 76.34%NM 71.27%EV -7.14%E -5.45%K -23.03%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-06-24 15:50
Paddy Power🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -12.66%E -4.22%K -6.33%G +0.000%	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.72%E -4.30%K -17.34%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-06-24 15:50
Fliff🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -12.66%E -4.22%K -6.33%G +0.000%	1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -6.43%E -4.87%K -20.10%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-06-24 15:50
NordicBet🎯	2.92I 34.25%NM 31.62%EV -14.99%E -5.13%K -7.80%G +0.000%	1.35I 74.07%NM 68.38%EV -4.30%E -3.19%K -12.30%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-06-24 15:50
BoyleSports🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -27.21%E -10.89%K -18.14%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV +6.33%E +4.22%K +12.66%G +0.801%	6.7%	2026-06-24 15:50

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%	1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72%	1.0%	2026-06-24 15:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85%	1.37I 72.99%NM 72.15%	1.2%	2026-06-24 15:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	3.55I 28.17%NM 27.70%	1.36I 73.53%NM 72.30%	1.7%	2026-06-24 15:50
Smarkets◎	3.55I 28.17%NM 27.40%	1.34I 74.63%NM 72.60%	2.8%	2026-06-24 15:50
ProphetX◎	3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%	1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%	4.0%	2026-06-24 15:50