Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 3.53
assuming max odds 1.40
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alice Tubello (Local): 29.37%; Elena Pridankina (Visit): 70.63%. For Alice Tubello (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.40. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.53, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.69%.
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.53I 28.33%NM 27.22%EV +3.69%E +1.05%K +1.46%G +0.054% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.78%EV -6.77%E -5.13%K -21.17%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-23 06:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -3.06%E -0.929%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.07%E -4.56%K -18.39%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-23 10:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.95%E -2.90%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-23 03:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.07%EV -5.41%E -1.68%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.93%EV -6.77%E -5.13%K -21.17%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-23 03:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.00%E -1.88%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.66%E -3.45%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-23 10:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -6.00%E -1.88%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -8.19%E -6.30%K -27.29%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-23 03:28 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.18I 31.45%NM 30.57%EV -6.59%E -2.07%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.43%EV -1.12%E -0.803%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-06-23 03:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.11I 32.15%NM 30.27%EV -8.65%E -2.78%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.73%EV -4.66%E -3.45%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-23 10:08 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -8.94%E -2.88%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -5.36%E -4.00%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-23 07:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -8.94%E -2.88%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -6.07%E -4.56%K -18.39%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-23 03:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -8.94%E -2.88%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 71.10%EV -11.01%E -8.74%K -42.35%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-06-23 07:40 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 3.06I 32.68%NM 30.30%EV -10.11%E -3.31%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.70%EV -6.07%E -4.56%K -18.39%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-23 03:28 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -15.40%E -5.35%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -3.95%E -2.90%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-23 03:29 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.84% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.16% | 2.6% | 2026-06-23 10:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.84% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.16% | 2.6% | 2026-06-23 10:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.84% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.16% | 2.6% | 2026-06-23 10:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12% | 4.9% | 2026-06-23 10:20 |