Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aliaksandra Sasnovich v Katy Dunne

Kickoff: 2026-06-23 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aliaksandra Sasnovich (Local)

Prediction 88.29%1.13fair odd
EV -0.230%
Edge -0.204%
Kelly -1.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
87.41%88.35%88.11%89.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.031.071.071.1397.09%93.20%93.46%88.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Katy Dunne (Visit)

Prediction 11.71%8.54fair odd
EV +6.43%
Edge +0.707%
Kelly +0.795%
Growth +0.051%

assuming max odds 9.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.53%11.65%11.89%12.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.408.098.009.0913.51%12.36%12.50%11.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aliaksandra Sasnovich (Local): 88.29%; Katy Dunne (Visit): 11.71%. For Katy Dunne (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.54. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.09, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.43%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.47%EV -5.53%E -5.17%K -78.97%G +0.000%9.09I 11.00%NM 10.53%EV +6.43%E +0.707%K +0.795%G +0.051%4.5%2026-06-23 12:30
ReBet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.93%EV -5.53%E -5.17%K -78.97%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.07%EV +0.691%E +0.080%K +0.091%G +0.001%5.1%2026-06-23 12:29
GTbets🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 88.04%EV -0.230%E -0.204%K -1.77%G +0.000%8.32I 12.02%NM 11.96%EV -2.59%E -0.311%K -0.353%G +0.000%0.5%2026-06-23 03:29
NetBet (FR)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 88.90%EV -9.06%E -8.80%K -301.99%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.10%EV -3.41%E -0.413%K -0.470%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-23 12:30
Betway🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.64%E -4.30%K -58.06%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -6.33%E -0.792%K -0.905%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-23 12:30
PlayUp🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.64%E -4.30%K -58.06%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -6.33%E -0.792%K -0.905%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-23 12:30
Paddy Power🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -6.41%E -6.05%K -106.85%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -6.33%E -0.792%K -0.905%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-23 12:30
theScore Bet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.87%EV -5.53%E -5.17%K -78.97%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.13%EV -9.26%E -1.19%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-23 12:30
BoyleSports🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -4.64%E -4.30%K -58.06%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -12.19%E -1.63%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-23 12:30
MyBookie.ag🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.47%EV -6.41%E -6.05%K -106.85%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.53%EV -13.36%E -1.81%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-23 12:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.08I 92.59%NM 91.41%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.59%1.3%2026-06-23 12:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.08I 92.59%NM 91.41%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.59%1.3%2026-06-23 12:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.08I 92.59%NM 91.41%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.59%1.3%2026-06-23 12:30
Smarkets1.08I 92.59%NM 91.06%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.94%1.7%2026-06-23 12:30