Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Janice Tjen v Rebecca Sramkova

Inicio: 2026-07-27 23:04 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Janice Tjen (Local)

Predicción 61.15%1.64momio equitativo
EV -0.938%
Ventaja -0.579%
Kelly -1.51%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.62

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.61%61.01%61.33%62.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.451.571.571.6268.97%63.73%63.69%61.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Rebecca Sramkova (Visitante)

Predicción 38.85%2.57momio equitativo
EV -0.930%
Ventaja -0.365%
Kelly -0.600%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.50%38.99%38.67%41.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.252.392.382.5544.44%41.87%42.02%39.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Janice Tjen (Local): 61.15%; Rebecca Sramkova (Visitante): 38.85%. Para Rebecca Sramkova (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.57. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.55, con un valor esperado de -0.930%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Unibet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -0.938%E -0.579%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -10.64%E -4.63%K -8.19%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-27 19:10
BetRivers🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -0.938%E -0.579%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -10.64%E -4.63%K -8.19%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-27 19:10
Grosvenor🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -0.938%E -0.579%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -10.64%E -4.63%K -8.19%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-27 19:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -0.938%E -0.579%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -10.64%E -4.63%K -8.19%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-27 19:10
Casumo🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -0.938%E -0.579%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -10.64%E -4.63%K -8.19%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-27 19:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -0.938%E -0.579%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -10.64%E -4.63%K -8.19%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-27 19:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -0.938%E -0.579%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -10.64%E -4.63%K -8.19%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-27 19:10
TABtouch🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -0.938%E -0.579%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -10.64%E -4.63%K -8.19%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-27 19:10
betPARX🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -0.938%E -0.579%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -10.64%E -4.63%K -8.19%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-27 19:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -0.938%E -0.579%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -10.64%E -4.63%K -8.19%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-27 19:10
Bally Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -0.938%E -0.579%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -10.64%E -4.63%K -8.19%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-27 19:11
ATG (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -0.938%E -0.579%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -10.64%E -4.63%K -8.19%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-27 19:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -0.938%E -0.579%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -10.64%E -4.63%K -8.19%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-27 19:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -1.55%E -0.963%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -11.42%E -5.01%K -8.92%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-27 19:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -1.55%E -0.963%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -11.42%E -5.01%K -8.92%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-27 19:10
Pinnacle🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.88%EV -2.16%E -1.35%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 39.12%EV -3.26%E -1.31%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.7%2026-07-27 17:20
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -2.16%E -1.35%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -10.64%E -4.63%K -8.19%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-27 19:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 61.46%EV -3.38%E -2.14%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.54%EV -2.10%E -0.832%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-27 22:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 61.46%EV -3.38%E -2.14%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.54%EV -2.10%E -0.832%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-27 22:55
Neds🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -3.38%E -2.14%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -10.64%E -4.63%K -8.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-27 17:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -3.38%E -2.14%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -10.64%E -4.63%K -8.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-27 17:10
TAB🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -3.38%E -2.14%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -10.64%E -4.63%K -8.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-27 17:34
BetAnything🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -4.00%E -2.55%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -2.87%E -1.15%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-27 18:15
Bet Right🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.00%E -2.55%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.76%E -2.82%K -4.83%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 21:26
Fanatics🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.00%E -2.55%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.76%E -2.82%K -4.83%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 21:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.00%E -2.55%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.76%E -2.82%K -4.83%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 22:30
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.00%E -2.55%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.53%E -3.17%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 17:10
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.00%E -2.55%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.53%E -3.17%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 17:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.00%E -2.55%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.53%E -3.17%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 17:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.00%E -2.55%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.53%E -3.17%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 17:10
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.00%E -2.55%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.53%E -3.17%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 17:10
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.00%E -2.55%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.53%E -3.17%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 19:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -4.00%E -2.55%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -8.70%E -3.70%K -6.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-27 23:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -4.00%E -2.55%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -8.70%E -3.70%K -6.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-27 23:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -4.00%E -2.55%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -12.59%E -5.59%K -10.07%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-27 19:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -4.61%E -2.95%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -0.930%E -0.365%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-27 17:15
BetUS🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.61%E -2.95%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.87%E -1.15%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-27 23:00
Betway🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -5.22%E -3.37%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -2.87%E -1.15%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-27 17:16
Coral🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -5.22%E -3.37%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -10.64%E -4.63%K -8.19%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-27 17:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -5.22%E -3.37%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -10.64%E -4.63%K -8.19%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-27 17:15
Bovada🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -5.83%E -3.79%K -10.80%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -0.930%E -0.365%K -0.600%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-27 23:00
1xBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.98%EV -5.83%E -3.79%K -10.80%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 38.02%EV -2.48%E -0.990%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-27 23:00
ReBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.83%E -3.79%K -10.80%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -2.87%E -1.15%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-27 22:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.83%E -3.79%K -10.80%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -2.87%E -1.15%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-27 17:15
theScore Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -5.83%E -3.79%K -10.80%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -4.82%E -1.97%K -3.32%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-27 17:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -5.83%E -3.79%K -10.80%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -4.82%E -1.97%K -3.32%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-27 17:15
FanDuel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.41%EV -6.44%E -4.21%K -12.15%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.59%EV -1.32%E -0.519%K -0.856%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-27 17:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.44%E -4.21%K -12.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.87%E -1.15%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 11:50
DraftKings🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.65%EV -6.44%E -4.21%K -12.15%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.35%EV -4.43%E -1.80%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-27 23:01
Betsson🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.65%EV -6.44%E -4.21%K -12.15%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.35%EV -4.43%E -1.80%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-27 17:15
NordicBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.65%EV -6.44%E -4.21%K -12.15%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.35%EV -4.43%E -1.80%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-27 17:15
Bet Victor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.44%E -4.21%K -12.15%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.53%E -3.17%K -5.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-27 17:58
NetBet (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.88%EV -7.66%E -5.08%K -15.03%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.12%EV -8.70%E -3.70%K -6.44%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-27 22:35
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -8.28%E -5.52%K -16.55%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -2.87%E -1.15%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-27 11:50
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -8.28%E -5.52%K -16.55%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -2.87%E -1.15%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-27 11:49
SportsBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -8.28%E -5.52%K -16.55%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.78%EV -4.04%E -1.63%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-27 17:16
Betclic (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.33%EV -11.33%E -7.82%K -25.19%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -10.64%E -4.63%K -8.19%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-27 22:59
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57%0.5%2026-07-27 23:01
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76%0.8%2026-07-27 22:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76%0.8%2026-07-27 22:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76%0.8%2026-07-27 22:35
Smarkets1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76%0.8%2026-07-27 23:01
ProphetX1.62I 61.73%NM 61.06%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.94%1.1%2026-07-27 22:55
Novig1.61I 62.11%NM 61.11%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.89%1.6%2026-07-27 22:55