Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Xinyu Wang v Anna Kalinskaya

Inicio: 2026-09-02 21:31 UTC

Final: Xinyu Wang 1–2 Anna Kalinskaya

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

63 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Xinyu Wang (Local)

Predicción 34.69%2.88momio equitativo
EV -1.83%
Ventaja -0.647%
Kelly -1.000%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.83

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.65%34.81%34.68%36.72%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.552.692.702.8339.22%37.17%37.04%35.34%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Anna Kalinskaya (Visitante)

Predicción 65.31%1.53momio equitativo
EV -2.03%
Ventaja -1.36%
Kelly -4.07%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
63.28%65.19%65.32%66.35%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.421.471.461.5070.42%68.24%68.49%66.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Xinyu Wang (Local): 34.69%; Anna Kalinskaya (Visitante): 65.31%. Para Xinyu Wang (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.88. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.83, con un valor esperado de -1.83%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (63 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 34.49%EV -1.83%E -0.647%K -1.000%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 65.51%EV -2.69%E -1.80%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.4%2026-09-02 17:45
Coolbet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.73%EV -2.87%E -1.03%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 65.27%EV -2.69%E -1.80%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.8%2026-09-02 21:20
LowVig.ag🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -2.87%E -1.03%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -3.34%E -2.26%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-02 19:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -2.87%E -1.03%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -3.34%E -2.26%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-02 19:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -2.87%E -1.03%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -3.99%E -2.72%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-02 15:55
Tipico (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -2.87%E -1.03%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -7.26%E -5.11%K -17.28%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-02 16:00
ReBet🎯2.79I 35.84%NM 34.51%EV -3.22%E -1.15%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.49%EV -3.99%E -2.72%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-02 16:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 34.59%EV -3.56%E -1.28%K -2.00%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.41%EV -3.99%E -2.72%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-02 21:24
BetUS🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 34.52%EV -3.91%E -1.41%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.48%EV -4.65%E -3.18%K -10.10%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-02 15:54
GTbets🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 34.91%EV -4.26%E -1.54%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.09%EV -3.34%E -2.26%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-02 20:25
FanDuel🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 34.75%EV -4.26%E -1.54%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.25%EV -3.99%E -2.72%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-02 21:15
Bovada🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -4.61%E -1.67%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.99%E -2.72%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-02 20:33
SportsBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -4.61%E -1.67%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -4.65%E -3.18%K -10.10%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-02 21:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -4.61%E -1.67%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -4.65%E -3.18%K -10.10%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-02 15:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -4.61%E -1.67%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -4.65%E -3.18%K -10.10%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-02 15:55
MyBookie.ag🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.61%E -1.67%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.30%E -3.65%K -11.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 15:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.61%E -1.67%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.30%E -3.65%K -11.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 15:55
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.61%E -1.67%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.95%E -4.13%K -13.53%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-01 09:15
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.61%E -1.67%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.95%E -4.13%K -13.53%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-02 20:55
Sky Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.61%E -1.67%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.95%E -4.13%K -13.53%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-02 21:15
BetMGM🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.61%E -1.67%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.95%E -4.13%K -13.53%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-01 09:45
Caesars🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -4.61%E -1.67%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -7.26%E -5.11%K -17.28%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-01 14:33
DraftKings🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 34.69%EV -5.30%E -1.94%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.31%EV -5.30%E -3.65%K -11.78%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 20:35
Bet Right🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.93%EV -5.65%E -2.08%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.07%EV -4.65%E -3.18%K -10.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 21:30
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -6.34%E -2.35%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -2.03%E -1.36%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-02 19:15
BetAnything🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -6.34%E -2.35%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.34%E -2.26%K -6.96%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-02 18:05
Neds🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -6.34%E -2.35%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -4.65%E -3.18%K -10.10%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-01 09:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -6.34%E -2.35%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -4.65%E -3.18%K -10.10%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-01 09:45
LeoVegas🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.34%E -2.35%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.30%E -3.65%K -11.78%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 16:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.34%E -2.35%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.30%E -3.65%K -11.78%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 21:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.34%E -2.35%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.30%E -3.65%K -11.78%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 05:55
theScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.34%E -2.35%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.30%E -3.65%K -11.78%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 15:55
PlayUp🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.34%E -2.35%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.30%E -3.65%K -11.78%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 16:05
betano_uk🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.34%E -2.35%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.30%E -3.65%K -11.78%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 19:34
Paddy Power🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.34%E -2.35%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.95%E -4.13%K -13.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-02 21:15
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.34%E -2.35%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.95%E -4.13%K -13.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-01 09:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.34%E -2.35%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.95%E -4.13%K -13.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-01 09:45
Betsson🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.34%E -2.35%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.95%E -4.13%K -13.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-02 15:55
NordicBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.34%E -2.35%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.95%E -4.13%K -13.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-02 15:55
NetBet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -6.34%E -2.35%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -6.61%E -4.62%K -15.36%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 21:19
TAB🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -8.07%E -3.05%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -4.65%E -3.18%K -10.10%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 12:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -8.77%E -3.33%K -5.38%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -2.03%E -1.36%K -4.07%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-02 20:20
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.11%E -3.48%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.95%E -4.13%K -13.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-02 21:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.11%E -3.48%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.95%E -4.13%K -13.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-02 21:30
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.11%E -3.48%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.95%E -4.13%K -13.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-02 21:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -9.81%E -3.77%K -6.13%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.03%E -1.36%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 05:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -9.81%E -3.77%K -6.13%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.03%E -1.36%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 15:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -9.81%E -3.77%K -6.13%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -2.69%E -1.80%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 15:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -9.81%E -3.77%K -6.13%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -2.69%E -1.80%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 15:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -9.81%E -3.77%K -6.13%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -2.69%E -1.80%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 15:55
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -9.81%E -3.77%K -6.13%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -2.69%E -1.80%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 15:55
BetRivers🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -9.81%E -3.77%K -6.13%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -2.69%E -1.80%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 15:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -9.81%E -3.77%K -6.13%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -2.69%E -1.80%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 15:55
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -9.81%E -3.77%K -6.13%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -2.69%E -1.80%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 15:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -9.81%E -3.77%K -6.13%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -2.69%E -1.80%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 15:55
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -9.81%E -3.77%K -6.13%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -2.69%E -1.80%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 15:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -9.81%E -3.77%K -6.13%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -2.69%E -1.80%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 15:55
betPARX🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -9.81%E -3.77%K -6.13%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -2.69%E -1.80%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 15:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -9.81%E -3.77%K -6.13%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -2.69%E -1.80%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 15:55
Bally Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -9.81%E -3.77%K -6.13%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -2.69%E -1.80%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 15:55
TABtouch🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -9.81%E -3.77%K -6.13%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -2.69%E -1.80%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 15:55
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -9.81%E -3.77%K -6.13%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -5.30%E -3.65%K -11.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-02 21:25
PMU (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -11.54%E -4.53%K -7.45%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -3.34%E -2.26%K -6.96%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-02 15:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.93%1.51I 66.23%NM 66.07%0.2%2026-09-02 21:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 34.09%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.91%0.5%2026-09-02 21:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 34.09%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.91%0.5%2026-09-02 21:01
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 34.09%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.91%0.5%2026-09-02 21:05
ProphetX◎2.90I 34.48%NM 34.24%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.76%0.7%2026-09-02 21:05
Novig◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%0.8%2026-09-02 21:20
Smarkets◎2.88I 34.72%NM 33.94%1.48I 67.57%NM 66.06%2.3%2026-09-02 21:11