Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Qinwen Zheng v Elena Rybakina

Inicio: 2026-09-09 15:37 UTC

Final: Qinwen Zheng 1–2 Elena Rybakina

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

66 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Qinwen Zheng (Local)

Predicción 27.04%3.70momio equitativo
EV +3.28%
Ventaja +0.858%
Kelly +1.16%
Crecimiento +0.038%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.82

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.95%27.09%27.08%29.89%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.193.513.503.8231.35%28.51%28.57%26.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Elena Rybakina (Visitante)

Predicción 72.96%1.37momio equitativo
EV -0.768%
Ventaja -0.565%
Kelly -2.13%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.36

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
70.11%72.91%72.92%75.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.251.301.301.3680.00%76.85%76.92%73.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Qinwen Zheng (Local): 27.04%; Elena Rybakina (Visitante): 72.96%. Para Qinwen Zheng (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.70. 10 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.82, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +3.28%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (66 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
SportsBet🎯3.82I 26.18%NM 24.95%EV +3.28%E +0.858%K +1.16%G +0.038%1.27I 78.74%NM 75.05%EV -7.34%E -5.78%K -27.17%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-09 14:50
Bovada🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.89%EV +1.38%E +0.369%K +0.503%G +0.007%1.31I 76.34%NM 74.11%EV -4.42%E -3.37%K -14.25%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-09 15:24
LowVig.ag🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.74%EV +1.38%E +0.369%K +0.503%G +0.007%1.30I 76.92%NM 74.26%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-09 14:50
BetOnline.ag🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.74%EV +1.38%E +0.369%K +0.503%G +0.007%1.30I 76.92%NM 74.26%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-09 14:50
FanDuel🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV +1.38%E +0.369%K +0.503%G +0.007%1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -5.88%E -4.55%K -20.26%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-09 14:51
BetAnything🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV +1.38%E +0.369%K +0.503%G +0.007%1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -5.88%E -4.55%K -20.26%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-09 15:25
Sky Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV +1.38%E +0.369%K +0.503%G +0.007%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -8.79%E -7.04%K -35.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-09 14:51
Paddy Power🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV +1.38%E +0.369%K +0.503%G +0.007%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -8.79%E -7.04%K -35.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-09 14:50
1xBet🎯3.71I 26.95%NM 25.80%EV +0.302%E +0.081%K +0.111%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 74.20%EV -5.88%E -4.55%K -20.26%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-09 15:25
theScore Bet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV +0.031%E +0.009%K +0.012%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -5.88%E -4.55%K -20.26%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-09 13:40
Winamax (DE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.41%EV -1.32%E -0.362%K -0.498%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 73.59%EV -4.42%E -3.37%K -14.25%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-09 13:25
Coolbet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.98%EV -2.67%E -0.742%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 73.02%EV -2.96%E -2.22%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-09 14:51
Unibet (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV -2.67%E -0.742%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 73.17%EV -3.69%E -2.79%K -11.52%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-09 13:40
ReBet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -2.67%E -0.742%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.42%E -3.37%K -14.25%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-09 13:40
Winamax (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -2.67%E -0.742%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-09 13:25
Tipico (DE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -2.67%E -0.742%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -6.61%E -5.16%K -23.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-09 10:19
Pinnacle🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 27.55%EV -4.02%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 72.45%EV -1.50%E -1.11%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.2%2026-09-09 15:26
Betclic (FR)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -4.02%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -6.61%E -5.16%K -23.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 15:15
NetBet (FR)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -4.02%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -6.61%E -5.16%K -23.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 14:51
BetMGM🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.42%E -3.37%K -14.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-09 13:29
Hard Rock Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.42%E -3.37%K -14.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-09 14:20
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 10:15
MyBookie.ag🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 13:46
BoyleSports🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 10:50
BetRivers🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 14:20
Unibet (NL)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 14:20
Virgin Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 14:20
Casumo🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 14:20
LiveScore Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 14:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 14:20
Grosvenor🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 14:20
Unibet (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 14:20
Unibet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 14:20
TABtouch🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 14:20
Bally Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 14:20
Svenska Spel🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 14:20
betPARX🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 14:24
ATG (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 14:20
betfred_uk🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.88%E -4.55%K -20.26%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-09 13:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.88%E -4.55%K -20.26%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-09 14:51
BetUS🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.88%E -4.55%K -20.26%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-09 14:41
Bet Right🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -6.61%E -5.16%K -23.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-09 15:15
Fliff🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -6.61%E -5.16%K -23.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-09 15:26
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -6.73%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-09 13:20
Fanatics🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -6.73%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-09 15:20
LeoVegas🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -6.73%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-09 13:15
GTbets🎯3.43I 29.15%NM 28.24%EV -7.27%E -2.12%K -2.99%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 71.76%EV -1.50%E -1.11%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-09 13:40
NordicBet🎯3.43I 29.15%NM 27.33%EV -7.27%E -2.12%K -2.99%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.67%EV -5.88%E -4.55%K -20.26%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-09 13:40
Betsson🎯3.43I 29.15%NM 27.33%EV -7.27%E -2.12%K -2.99%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.67%EV -5.88%E -4.55%K -20.26%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-09 13:45
Marathon Bet🎯3.42I 29.24%NM 27.85%EV -7.54%E -2.20%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.15%EV -3.69%E -2.79%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-09 15:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.69%E -2.79%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-09 13:30
Neds🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.69%E -2.79%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-09 13:31
betano_uk🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 15:14
TAB🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 14:44
PMU (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 14:20
Caesars🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -5.88%E -4.55%K -20.26%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 14:43
Coral🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -6.61%E -5.16%K -23.59%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-09 13:26
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -6.61%E -5.16%K -23.59%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-09 13:25
Unibet (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -7.34%E -5.78%K -27.17%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-09 15:00
Betr (AU)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -9.43%E -2.82%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -4.42%E -3.37%K -14.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-09 15:25
William Hill🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.96%E -2.22%K -8.96%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 15:26
888sport🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.96%E -2.22%K -8.96%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 15:25
PlayUp🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.96%E -2.22%K -8.96%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 13:50
888sport (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.96%E -2.22%K -8.96%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 15:26
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.96%E -2.22%K -8.96%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 15:25
DraftKings🎯3.19I 31.35%NM 29.89%EV -13.76%E -4.31%K -6.28%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.11%EV -0.768%E -0.565%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-09 13:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.90I 25.64%NM 25.57%1.34I 74.63%NM 74.43%0.3%2026-09-09 15:26
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82%1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18%0.6%2026-09-09 15:26
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82%1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18%0.6%2026-09-09 15:21
Matchbook◎3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82%1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18%0.6%2026-09-09 15:26
ProphetX◎3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82%1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18%0.6%2026-09-09 15:25
Novig◎3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82%1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18%0.6%2026-09-09 15:26
Smarkets◎3.80I 26.32%NM 25.78%1.32I 75.76%NM 74.22%2.1%2026-09-09 15:25