Language:English
Aryna Sabalenka v Maria Camila Osorio Serrano
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Aryna Sabalenka (Local)
Prediction 91.21%1.10fair odd
EV +0.332%
Edge +0.302%
Kelly +3.32%
Growth +0.011%
assuming max odds 1.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
86.85%90.93%91.36%93.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.041.041.1098.04%95.78%96.15%90.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Maria Camila Osorio Serrano (Visit)
Prediction 8.79%11.38fair odd
EV +31.83%
Edge +2.12%
Kelly +2.27%
Growth +0.724%
assuming max odds 15.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.43%9.07%8.64%13.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.2010.7211.0015.0013.89%9.33%9.09%6.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aryna Sabalenka (Local): 91.21%; Maria Camila Osorio Serrano (Visit): 8.79%. For Maria Camila Osorio Serrano (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.38. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 15.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +31.83%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -6.05%E -5.88%K -201.75%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +31.83%E +2.12%K +2.27%G +0.724% | 3.8% | 2026-08-31 15:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -6.05%E -5.88%K -201.75%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +31.83%E +2.12%K +2.27%G +0.724% | 3.8% | 2026-08-31 15:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.25%EV -6.96%E -6.83%K -348.24%G +0.000% | 14.10I 7.09%NM 6.75%EV +23.92%E +1.70%K +1.83%G +0.437% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 15:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 92.66%EV -4.23%E -4.03%K -84.57%G +0.000% | 13.25I 7.55%NM 7.34%EV +16.45%E +1.24%K +1.34%G +0.221% | 2.8% | 2026-08-31 15:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 92.53%EV -4.23%E -4.03%K -84.57%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.47%EV +14.26%E +1.10%K +1.19%G +0.169% | 2.9% | 2026-08-31 15:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 92.25%EV -4.23%E -4.03%K -84.57%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.75%EV +9.86%E +0.789%K +0.858%G +0.085% | 3.2% | 2026-08-31 15:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.17%EV -5.14%E -4.94%K -128.51%G +0.000% | 12.25I 8.16%NM 7.83%EV +7.66%E +0.626%K +0.681%G +0.052% | 4.3% | 2026-08-31 15:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -5.14%E -4.94%K -128.51%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +5.47%E +0.456%K +0.497%G +0.027% | 4.5% | 2026-08-31 15:24 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -5.14%E -4.94%K -128.51%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +5.47%E +0.456%K +0.497%G +0.027% | 4.5% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -6.96%E -6.83%K -348.24%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV +5.47%E +0.456%K +0.497%G +0.027% | 6.4% | 2026-08-31 10:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.80%EV -4.23%E -4.03%K -84.57%G +0.000% | 11.75I 8.51%NM 8.20%EV +3.27%E +0.278%K +0.304%G +0.010% | 3.7% | 2026-08-31 15:25 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.84%EV -5.14%E -4.94%K -128.51%G +0.000% | 11.70I 8.55%NM 8.16%EV +2.83%E +0.242%K +0.265%G +0.007% | 4.7% | 2026-08-31 15:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -5.14%E -4.94%K -128.51%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +1.07%E +0.093%K +0.102%G +0.001% | 4.8% | 2026-08-31 15:25 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.85%EV -6.96%E -6.83%K -348.24%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.15%EV +1.07%E +0.093%K +0.102%G +0.001% | 6.7% | 2026-08-31 10:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.61%EV -6.05%E -5.88%K -201.75%G +0.000% | 11.25I 8.89%NM 8.39%EV -1.12%E -0.100%K -0.110%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-31 15:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.50%EV -5.14%E -4.94%K -128.51%G +0.000% | 11.20I 8.93%NM 8.50%EV -1.56%E -0.140%K -0.153%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 15:25 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.50%EV -5.14%E -4.94%K -128.51%G +0.000% | 11.20I 8.93%NM 8.50%EV -1.56%E -0.140%K -0.153%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 15:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.23%E -4.03%K -84.57%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -3.32%E -0.302%K -0.332%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-31 15:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.23%E -4.03%K -84.57%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -3.32%E -0.302%K -0.332%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-31 15:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.23%E -4.03%K -84.57%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -3.32%E -0.302%K -0.332%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-31 15:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.14%E -4.94%K -128.51%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -3.32%E -0.302%K -0.332%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-31 14:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.14%E -4.94%K -128.51%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -3.32%E -0.302%K -0.332%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-31 15:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.14%E -4.94%K -128.51%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -3.32%E -0.302%K -0.332%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-31 15:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.14%E -4.94%K -128.51%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -3.32%E -0.302%K -0.332%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-31 15:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.14%E -4.94%K -128.51%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -3.32%E -0.302%K -0.332%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-31 15:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.14%E -4.94%K -128.51%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -3.32%E -0.302%K -0.332%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-31 15:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.14%E -4.94%K -128.51%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -3.32%E -0.302%K -0.332%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-31 09:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.14%E -4.94%K -128.51%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -3.32%E -0.302%K -0.332%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-31 15:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.14%E -4.94%K -128.51%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -3.32%E -0.302%K -0.332%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-31 09:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.14%E -4.94%K -128.51%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -3.32%E -0.302%K -0.332%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-31 09:21 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.05%E -5.88%K -201.75%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -3.32%E -0.302%K -0.332%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-31 10:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.05%E -5.88%K -201.75%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -3.32%E -0.302%K -0.332%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-31 15:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.05%E -5.88%K -201.75%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -3.32%E -0.302%K -0.332%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-31 15:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -4.23%E -4.03%K -84.57%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV -7.72%E -0.735%K -0.812%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-31 12:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -4.23%E -4.03%K -84.57%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV -7.72%E -0.735%K -0.812%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-31 12:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.79%EV -5.14%E -4.94%K -128.51%G +0.000% | 10.25I 9.76%NM 9.21%EV -9.91%E -0.967%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-31 09:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.23%E -4.03%K -84.57%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -12.11%E -1.21%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-31 15:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.23%E -4.03%K -84.57%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -12.11%E -1.21%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-30 11:14 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.23%E -4.03%K -84.57%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -12.11%E -1.21%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-31 15:18 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.14%E -4.94%K -128.51%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -12.11%E -1.21%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-31 09:24 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.14%E -4.94%K -128.51%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -12.11%E -1.21%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-31 09:24 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -6.05%E -5.88%K -201.75%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV -12.11%E -1.21%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-31 09:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.36%EV -5.14%E -4.94%K -128.51%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.64%EV -14.31%E -1.47%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-31 15:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.23%E -4.03%K -84.57%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -16.51%E -1.74%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 14:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.23%E -4.03%K -84.57%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -16.51%E -1.74%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 14:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.23%E -4.03%K -84.57%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -16.51%E -1.74%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 14:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.23%E -4.03%K -84.57%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -16.51%E -1.74%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 14:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.23%E -4.03%K -84.57%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -16.51%E -1.74%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 14:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.23%E -4.03%K -84.57%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -16.51%E -1.74%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 14:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.23%E -4.03%K -84.57%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -16.51%E -1.74%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 14:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.23%E -4.03%K -84.57%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -16.51%E -1.74%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 14:25 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.23%E -4.03%K -84.57%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -16.51%E -1.74%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 14:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.23%E -4.03%K -84.57%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -16.51%E -1.74%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 14:25 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.23%E -4.03%K -84.57%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -16.51%E -1.74%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 14:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.23%E -4.03%K -84.57%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -16.51%E -1.74%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 14:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.23%E -4.03%K -84.57%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -16.51%E -1.74%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 14:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.23%E -4.03%K -84.57%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -16.51%E -1.74%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 14:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.23%E -4.03%K -84.57%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -16.51%E -1.74%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 14:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.22%EV -6.05%E -5.88%K -201.75%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.78%EV -16.51%E -1.74%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-31 14:25 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -4.23%E -4.03%K -84.57%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -20.90%E -2.32%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-28 20:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.91%EV +0.332%E +0.302%K +3.32%G +0.011% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.09%EV -29.69%E -3.71%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-30 23:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.85%EV -0.580%E -0.532%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.15%EV -36.72%E -5.10%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-31 15:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.96% | 16.50I 6.06%NM 6.04% | 0.4% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 94.54% | 18.18I 5.50%NM 5.46% | 0.7% | 2026-08-31 14:56 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 94.34% | 17.51I 5.71%NM 5.66% | 0.9% | 2026-08-31 15:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 94.34% | 17.50I 5.71%NM 5.66% | 1.0% | 2026-08-31 15:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 94.34% | 17.50I 5.71%NM 5.66% | 1.0% | 2026-08-31 15:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 94.34% | 17.50I 5.71%NM 5.66% | 1.0% | 2026-08-31 15:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 94.34% | 17.50I 5.71%NM 5.66% | 1.0% | 2026-08-31 15:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 94.07% | 16.67I 6.00%NM 5.93% | 1.2% | 2026-08-31 11:40 |