Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aryna Sabalenka v Maria Camila Osorio Serrano

2026-08-30 15:00 UTC — WTA US Open

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aryna Sabalenka (Local)

Prediction 87.48%1.14fair odd
EV -3.77%
Edge -3.43%
Kelly -37.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
85.28%87.44%87.41%88.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.081.081.1094.34%92.63%92.59%90.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Maria Camila Osorio Serrano (Visit)

Prediction 12.52%7.99fair odd
EV +0.138%
Edge +0.017%
Kelly +0.020%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.70%12.56%12.59%14.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.207.678.008.0016.13%13.03%12.50%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Aryna Sabalenka (Local): 87.48%; Maria Camila Osorio Serrano (Visit): 12.52%. For Maria Camila Osorio Serrano (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.99. 16 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 8.00, producing a positive expected value of +0.138%.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
PMU (FR)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.52%E -5.11%K -68.98%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +0.138%E +0.017%K +0.020%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-27 20:35
BetRivers🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.52%E -5.11%K -68.98%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +0.138%E +0.017%K +0.020%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-27 20:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.52%E -5.11%K -68.98%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +0.138%E +0.017%K +0.020%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-27 20:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.52%E -5.11%K -68.98%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +0.138%E +0.017%K +0.020%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-27 20:35
Betway🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.52%E -5.11%K -68.98%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +0.138%E +0.017%K +0.020%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-27 21:25
Grosvenor🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.52%E -5.11%K -68.98%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +0.138%E +0.017%K +0.020%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-27 21:40
Casumo🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.52%E -5.11%K -68.98%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +0.138%E +0.017%K +0.020%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-27 21:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.52%E -5.11%K -68.98%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +0.138%E +0.017%K +0.020%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-27 21:40
betPARX🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.52%E -5.11%K -68.98%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +0.138%E +0.017%K +0.020%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-27 21:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.52%E -5.11%K -68.98%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +0.138%E +0.017%K +0.020%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-27 21:45
Bally Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.52%E -5.11%K -68.98%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +0.138%E +0.017%K +0.020%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-27 21:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.52%E -5.11%K -68.98%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +0.138%E +0.017%K +0.020%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-27 21:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.52%E -5.11%K -68.98%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +0.138%E +0.017%K +0.020%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-27 21:55
TABtouch🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.52%E -5.11%K -68.98%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +0.138%E +0.017%K +0.020%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-27 22:00
Unibet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.52%E -5.11%K -68.98%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +0.138%E +0.017%K +0.020%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-27 22:15
SportsBet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -7.27%E -6.86%K -121.14%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV +0.138%E +0.017%K +0.020%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-27 20:34
DraftKings🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.70%EV -5.52%E -5.11%K -68.98%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 12.30%EV -3.62%E -0.470%K -0.540%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-27 23:55
GTbets🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 87.27%EV -3.77%E -3.43%K -37.69%G +0.000%7.54I 13.26%NM 12.73%EV -5.62%E -0.745%K -0.859%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-27 23:44
Betr (AU)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.52%E -5.11%K -68.98%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -6.12%E -0.816%K -0.942%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-28 00:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.52%E -5.11%K -68.98%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -6.12%E -0.816%K -0.942%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-28 00:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.16%EV -4.64%E -4.26%K -51.60%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.84%EV -7.37%E -0.996%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-28 00:19
theScore Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.03%EV -5.52%E -5.11%K -68.98%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.97%EV -9.25%E -1.28%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-27 23:45
BetMGM🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -4.64%E -4.26%K -51.60%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -12.38%E -1.77%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-28 00:15
LeoVegas🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.23%EV -6.39%E -5.98%K -91.33%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.77%EV -16.13%E -2.41%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-28 00:25
MyBookie.ag🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.23%EV -6.39%E -5.98%K -91.33%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.77%EV -16.13%E -2.41%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-28 00:24
ReBet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.28%EV -6.39%E -5.98%K -91.33%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.72%EV -22.39%E -3.61%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-28 00:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.05I 95.24%NM 88.65%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.35%7.4%2026-08-27 23:55