Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Laura Siegemund v Magdalena Frech

Kickoff: 2026-04-13 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

48%

52%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Laura Siegemund (Local)

Prediction 47.58%2.10fair odd

EV -1.50%

Edge -0.725%

Kelly -1.40%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

45.81%47.58%47.58%49.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.932.052.072.0751.81%48.69%48.31%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Magdalena Frech (Visit)

Prediction 52.42%1.91fair odd

EV +0.638%

Edge +0.332%

Kelly +0.693%

Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 1.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

50.64%52.42%52.42%54.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.711.761.751.9258.48%56.77%57.14%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Laura Siegemund (Local): 47.58%; Magdalena Frech (Visit): 52.42%. For Magdalena Frech (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.91. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.92, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.638%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.97I 50.76%NM 49.36%EV -6.26%E -3.18%K -6.45%G +0.000%	1.92I 52.08%NM 50.64%EV +0.638%E +0.332%K +0.693%G +0.004%	2.8%	2026-04-13 15:20
PlayUp🎯	1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -8.16%E -4.23%K -8.78%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -3.03%E -1.64%K -3.57%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-04-13 15:40
Unibet🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -1.50%E -0.725%K -1.40%G +0.000%	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -8.27%E -4.73%K -11.03%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-04-13 13:04
Unibet (SE)🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -1.50%E -0.725%K -1.40%G +0.000%	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -8.27%E -4.73%K -11.03%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-04-13 13:10
ATG (SE)🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -1.50%E -0.725%K -1.40%G +0.000%	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -8.27%E -4.73%K -11.03%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-04-13 13:10
Bally Bet🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -1.50%E -0.725%K -1.40%G +0.000%	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -8.27%E -4.73%K -11.03%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-04-13 13:10
TABtouch🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -1.50%E -0.725%K -1.40%G +0.000%	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -8.27%E -4.73%K -11.03%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-04-13 13:19
LeoVegas🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -1.50%E -0.725%K -1.40%G +0.000%	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -8.27%E -4.73%K -11.03%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-04-13 13:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -1.50%E -0.725%K -1.40%G +0.000%	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -8.27%E -4.73%K -11.03%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-04-13 13:20
LiveScore Bet🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -1.50%E -0.725%K -1.40%G +0.000%	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -8.27%E -4.73%K -11.03%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-04-13 13:20
Grosvenor🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -1.50%E -0.725%K -1.40%G +0.000%	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -8.27%E -4.73%K -11.03%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-04-13 13:29
Virgin Bet🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -1.50%E -0.725%K -1.40%G +0.000%	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -8.27%E -4.73%K -11.03%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-04-13 13:30
Unibet (NL)🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -1.50%E -0.725%K -1.40%G +0.000%	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -8.27%E -4.73%K -11.03%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-04-13 13:40
betPARX🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -1.50%E -0.725%K -1.40%G +0.000%	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -8.27%E -4.73%K -11.03%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-04-13 13:39
Svenska Spel🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -1.50%E -0.725%K -1.40%G +0.000%	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -8.27%E -4.73%K -11.03%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-04-13 13:39
Casumo🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -1.50%E -0.725%K -1.40%G +0.000%	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -8.27%E -4.73%K -11.03%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-04-13 14:00
BetRivers🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -1.50%E -0.725%K -1.40%G +0.000%	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -8.27%E -4.73%K -11.03%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-04-13 14:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -2.45%E -1.20%K -2.34%G +0.000%	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -8.80%E -5.06%K -11.89%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-04-13 15:05
PMU (FR)🎯	2.02I 49.50%NM 45.84%EV -3.88%E -1.92%K -3.80%G +0.000%	1.71I 58.48%NM 54.16%EV -10.37%E -6.06%K -14.60%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-04-13 13:19

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.