Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mika Stojsavljevic v Marta Kostyuk

Kickoff: 2026-06-09 13:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

18%

82%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mika Stojsavljevic (Local)

Prediction 18.39%5.44fair odd

EV +9.63%

Edge +1.62%

Kelly +1.94%

Growth +0.187%

assuming max odds 5.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

16.06%18.24%18.45%19.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.755.165.185.9621.05%19.40%19.31%16.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Marta Kostyuk (Visit)

Prediction 81.61%1.23fair odd

EV -3.70%

Edge -3.14%

Kelly -20.58%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

80.10%81.76%81.55%83.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.141.161.161.1887.72%86.28%86.21%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mika Stojsavljevic (Local): 18.39%; Marta Kostyuk (Visit): 81.61%. For Mika Stojsavljevic (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.44. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.96, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.63%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	5.96I 16.78%NM 16.06%EV +9.63%E +1.62%K +1.94%G +0.187%	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.94%EV -6.97%E -6.11%K -49.78%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-06-09 12:09
LowVig.ag🎯	5.96I 16.78%NM 16.06%EV +9.63%E +1.62%K +1.94%G +0.187%	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.94%EV -6.97%E -6.11%K -49.78%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-06-09 12:09
Pinnacle🎯	5.37I 18.62%NM 18.02%EV -1.23%E -0.228%K -0.280%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 81.98%EV -3.70%E -3.14%K -20.58%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-06-09 12:59
Bet Right🎯	5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -3.43%E -0.654%K -0.808%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -5.34%E -4.60%K -33.35%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-06-09 12:09
Betway🎯	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -3.43%E -0.654%K -0.808%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -6.15%E -5.35%K -41.02%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-06-09 12:09
BetRivers🎯	5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -4.35%E -0.837%K -1.04%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.34%E -4.60%K -33.35%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-06-09 11:19
Casumo🎯	5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -4.35%E -0.837%K -1.04%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.34%E -4.60%K -33.35%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-06-09 11:19
Grosvenor🎯	5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -4.35%E -0.837%K -1.04%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.34%E -4.60%K -33.35%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-06-09 11:19
LeoVegas🎯	5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -4.35%E -0.837%K -1.04%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.34%E -4.60%K -33.35%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-06-09 11:19
Unibet (NL)🎯	5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -4.35%E -0.837%K -1.04%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.34%E -4.60%K -33.35%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-06-09 11:19
1xBet🎯	5.18I 19.31%NM 18.43%EV -4.72%E -0.911%K -1.13%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.57%EV -4.52%E -3.86%K -26.59%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-06-09 13:19
Coolbet🎯	5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -6.19%E -1.21%K -1.51%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.52%E -3.86%K -26.59%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-06-09 13:17
Fanatics🎯	5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -6.19%E -1.21%K -1.51%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.52%E -3.86%K -26.59%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-06-09 12:58
betfred_uk🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -8.03%E -1.61%K -2.01%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.52%E -3.86%K -26.59%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-06-09 11:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -8.03%E -1.61%K -2.01%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -5.34%E -4.60%K -33.35%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-06-09 12:59
Everygame🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -8.03%E -1.61%K -2.01%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.97%E -6.11%K -49.78%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-06-09 12:09
Virgin Bet🎯	4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -9.87%E -2.01%K -2.53%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 80.86%EV -5.34%E -4.60%K -33.35%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-06-09 11:19
LiveScore Bet🎯	4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -9.87%E -2.01%K -2.53%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 80.86%EV -5.34%E -4.60%K -33.35%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-06-09 11:19
PMU (FR)🎯	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.19%EV -11.71%E -2.44%K -3.08%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 80.81%EV -6.97%E -6.11%K -49.78%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-06-09 11:19
PlayUp🎯	4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -12.63%E -2.66%K -3.37%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -3.70%E -3.14%K -20.58%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-06-09 12:59
Bet Victor🎯	4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -12.63%E -2.66%K -3.37%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -6.15%E -5.35%K -41.02%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-06-09 13:13

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Matchbook◎	5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%	1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%	4.0%	2026-06-09 12:59