Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sorana Cirstea v Shi Han

Kickoff: 2026-10-19 07:11 UTC

Final: Sorana Cirstea 2–0 Shi Han

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

70%

30%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sorana Cirstea (Local)

Prediction 69.66%1.44fair odd

EV -2.47%

Edge -1.77%

Kelly -6.19%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

67.29%69.75%69.82%72.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.301.361.351.4076.92%73.62%74.07%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Shi Han (Visit)

Prediction 30.34%3.30fair odd

EV +4.37%

Edge +1.27%

Kelly +1.79%

Growth +0.078%

assuming max odds 3.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.70%30.25%30.18%32.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.883.113.153.4434.72%32.17%31.75%29.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sorana Cirstea (Local): 69.66%; Shi Han (Visit): 30.34%. For Shi Han (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.30. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.44, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.37%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 71.82%EV -5.96%E -4.41%K -17.02%G +0.000%	3.44I 29.07%NM 28.18%EV +4.37%E +1.27%K +1.79%G +0.078%	3.1%	2026-10-19 06:26
DraftKings🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 72.30%EV -8.74%E -6.68%K -28.21%G +0.000%	3.42I 29.24%NM 27.70%EV +3.76%E +1.10%K +1.55%G +0.058%	5.6%	2026-10-19 07:00
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 70.66%EV -4.56%E -3.33%K -12.34%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 29.34%EV +0.119%E +0.036%K +0.052%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-10-19 05:25
Bovada🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.61%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -2.91%E -0.911%K -1.32%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-10-19 06:55
ReBet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.61%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -2.91%E -0.911%K -1.32%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-10-19 05:45
BoyleSports🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.61%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -2.91%E -0.911%K -1.32%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-10-18 21:19
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.61%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -2.91%E -0.911%K -1.32%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-10-18 16:40
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.96%E -4.41%K -17.02%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -2.91%E -0.911%K -1.32%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-19 05:45
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.96%E -4.41%K -17.02%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -2.91%E -0.911%K -1.32%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-18 16:34
Virgin Bet🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.96%E -4.41%K -17.02%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -2.91%E -0.911%K -1.32%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-18 16:34
Unibet🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.96%E -4.41%K -17.02%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -2.91%E -0.911%K -1.32%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-18 16:34
BetRivers🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.96%E -4.41%K -17.02%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -2.91%E -0.911%K -1.32%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-18 16:35
Grosvenor🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.96%E -4.41%K -17.02%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -2.91%E -0.911%K -1.32%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-18 16:35
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.96%E -4.41%K -17.02%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -2.91%E -0.911%K -1.32%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-18 16:35
TABtouch🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.96%E -4.41%K -17.02%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -2.91%E -0.911%K -1.32%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-18 16:35
Casumo🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.96%E -4.41%K -17.02%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -2.91%E -0.911%K -1.32%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-18 16:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.96%E -4.41%K -17.02%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -2.91%E -0.911%K -1.32%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-18 16:35
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.96%E -4.41%K -17.02%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -2.91%E -0.911%K -1.32%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-18 16:35
Svenska Spel🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.96%E -4.41%K -17.02%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -2.91%E -0.911%K -1.32%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-18 16:34
Bally Bet🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.96%E -4.41%K -17.02%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -2.91%E -0.911%K -1.32%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-18 16:34
ATG (SE)🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.96%E -4.41%K -17.02%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -2.91%E -0.911%K -1.32%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-18 16:35
betPARX🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.96%E -4.41%K -17.02%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -2.91%E -0.911%K -1.32%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-18 16:33
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -9.44%E -7.26%K -31.47%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -2.91%E -0.911%K -1.32%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-10-19 06:00
LowVig.ag🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 69.80%EV -3.87%E -2.80%K -10.18%G +0.000%	3.19I 31.35%NM 30.20%EV -3.22%E -1.01%K -1.47%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-10-19 05:20
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 69.80%EV -3.87%E -2.80%K -10.18%G +0.000%	3.19I 31.35%NM 30.20%EV -3.22%E -1.01%K -1.47%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-10-19 05:20
LeoVegas🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.96%E -4.41%K -17.02%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -4.43%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-19 06:40
Betsson🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.96%E -4.41%K -17.02%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -4.43%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-19 05:45
NordicBet🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.96%E -4.41%K -17.02%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -4.43%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-19 05:50
PlayUp🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.61%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-19 06:55
picklebet_au🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.61%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-19 05:50
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -6.65%E -4.97%K -19.57%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-10-19 05:25
TAB🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -6.65%E -4.97%K -19.57%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-10-19 06:55
theScore Bet🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -7.35%E -5.53%K -22.28%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-10-19 06:55
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 70.45%EV -9.44%E -7.26%K -31.47%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-10-19 06:20
Coolbet🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.99%EV -3.87%E -2.80%K -10.18%G +0.000%	3.07I 32.57%NM 31.01%EV -6.86%E -2.23%K -3.31%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-19 06:55
FanDuel🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -3.87%E -2.80%K -10.18%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -7.47%E -2.45%K -3.64%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-19 06:55
Fanatics🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 69.00%EV -4.56%E -3.33%K -12.34%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -7.47%E -2.45%K -3.64%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-19 06:55
PMU (FR)🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 70.11%EV -9.44%E -7.26%K -31.47%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -7.47%E -2.45%K -3.64%G +0.000%	9.7%	2026-10-19 01:04
Marathon Bet🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.64%EV -3.87%E -2.80%K -10.18%G +0.000%	3.02I 33.11%NM 31.36%EV -8.38%E -2.77%K -4.15%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-19 07:00
Bet Right🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -3.17%E -2.28%K -8.13%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -8.98%E -2.99%K -4.49%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-19 06:55
1xBet🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -3.17%E -2.28%K -8.13%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -8.98%E -2.99%K -4.49%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-19 06:59
Betway🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.87%E -2.80%K -10.18%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -8.98%E -2.99%K -4.49%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-19 06:55
Betr (AU)🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -4.56%E -3.33%K -12.34%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -8.98%E -2.99%K -4.49%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-10-19 07:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -4.56%E -3.33%K -12.34%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -8.98%E -2.99%K -4.49%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-10-19 06:55
SportsBet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.61%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.98%E -2.99%K -4.49%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-10-19 06:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.35%E -5.53%K -22.28%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -8.98%E -2.99%K -4.49%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-10-19 06:55
Coral🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.35%E -5.53%K -22.28%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -8.98%E -2.99%K -4.49%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-10-19 07:00
888sport🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.47%E -1.77%K -6.19%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -12.02%E -4.14%K -6.32%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-10-19 06:40
888sport (SE)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.47%E -1.77%K -6.19%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -12.02%E -4.14%K -6.32%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-10-19 06:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.47%E -1.77%K -6.19%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -12.02%E -4.14%K -6.32%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-10-19 06:40
William Hill🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.47%E -1.77%K -6.19%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -12.02%E -4.14%K -6.32%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-10-19 06:40
Neds🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -3.87%E -2.80%K -10.18%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -12.02%E -4.14%K -6.32%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-10-19 06:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -3.87%E -2.80%K -10.18%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -12.02%E -4.14%K -6.32%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-10-19 06:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -2.47%E -1.77%K -6.19%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -12.62%E -4.38%K -6.71%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-10-19 06:55
Paddy Power🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.61%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -12.62%E -4.38%K -6.71%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-10-19 06:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Matchbook◎	1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11%	3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89%	1.2%	2026-10-19 07:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.42I 70.42%NM 69.59%	3.25I 30.77%NM 30.41%	1.2%	2026-10-19 07:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.42I 70.42%NM 69.59%	3.25I 30.77%NM 30.41%	1.2%	2026-10-19 07:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.42I 70.42%NM 69.59%	3.25I 30.77%NM 30.41%	1.2%	2026-10-19 07:00
Novig◎	1.43I 69.93%NM 68.91%	3.17I 31.55%NM 31.09%	1.5%	2026-10-19 07:00
ProphetX◎	1.42I 70.42%NM 68.93%	3.15I 31.75%NM 31.07%	2.2%	2026-10-19 07:00